The Battle For 2019 Comeback Player of the Year
When I was in school, specifically college, I remember there was a course or two in which the professor allowed you to turn in certain assignments a day late. In return, you would incur the loss of a letter grade per day past the original due date.
In a way, that's how I feel today making my predictions for Comeback Player of the Year. So, if you wanted to give me a B should my predictions somehow come true, I suppose that's fair.
On the bright side, there are still a whopping 158 games left.
I really wanted to wait a few days to post predictions, but I can't wait any longer for reasons already stated. Nobody likes to be late to "the party". No one wants to be that guy who turns in a late March Madness bracket into your best friend's $10 tourney pool. But unlike an instance such as that, there's still time for a comeback in my case.
Hah. See what I did there?
Ok, ok. I give. What makes a "comeback" anyway, I found myself pondering as I wrote this. Is it a matter of recency - such that you had to be "good" within X amount of years ago? And how "good" did you have to previously be to justify a current state as being referred to as a comeback? These are all things I couldn't help but think about.
So, I went to work and made a list, kind of like I would should I turn my assignment in on time in college. And, I gotta say, it was interesting. I was forced to peruse the lists of league leaders, stats, and injuries of players from the last several years - concluding with a list of, coincidentally, exactly 50 players I thought were candidates to win the honorable title of Comeback Player of the Year. Some of which obviously less of a candidate than others.
I then considered some of the factors I already stated...When were they last performing at a high level? Was their previous performance at a high enough level to now be considered a comeback? How deep are we diving into the numbers?
Because 30 home runs for one hitter aren't always an equal to the 30 home runs of another. I'm looking at you, Joey Gallo.
I had no choice but to break it down into groups and tiers. Some of these guys, I can almost guarantee you'll laugh at, but I considered a player with a 5-10% chance of turning his career around still a candidate - after all, isn't that what comebacks are all about?
So let's get to it.
The Groups
Note: For each group, it only takes one year to qualify -and- we are not truly factoring in defense just yet (we will get to that later if necessary):
~Tier 1~
The Very-Recently Elite (2017): Jose Altuve, Kris Bryant, Joey Votto, Charlie Blackmon, Gary Sanchez (relative to his position), Stephen Strasburg, Josh Donaldson, Yu Darvish, and Marcell Ozuna
The Very-Recently Very Very Good (2017): Daniel Murphy, Brian Dozier, Corey Seager, Danny Duffy (nearly elite), Justin Smoak, Domingo Santana, and Sonny Gray
The Very-Recently Very Good (2017): Michael Wacha, Drew Pomeranz, Marcus Stroman, Eric Hosmer, Jonathan Schoop, Logan Morrison, Eric Thames, Trey Mancini and (barely) Jake Lamb
~Tier 2~
The Not-Too-Distantly Elite (2015-2016): Miguel Cabrera, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Britton, Johnny Cueto, Yoenis Cespedes, and Rick Porcello
The Not-Too-Distantly Very Very Good (2015-2016): Buster Posey (extremely close to elite), Hanley Ramirez, Jordan Zimmermann, Ian Kinsler, and Shelby Miller
The Not-Too-Distantly Very Good (2015-2016: Ervin Santana, Carlos Gonzalez, Julio Teheran, Dustin Pedroia, Todd Frazier, and Kole Calhoun
~Tier 3~
The Distantly Good (2014 or earlier): Jacoby Ellsbury, Homer Bailey
Former Stars (2014 or earlier): Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, and Brian McCann
The Failed Former Budding Stars (2014 or earlier): Matt Moore
The Young Crowd (26 or Younger): Miguel Sano, Jordan Montgomery
50!!! 50 names for 2 awards. You're probably thinking, "this is overkill, man". And I'll admit it - it is! But it's never inappropriate to look back at the last few years as there may always be something you missed. It's like revisiting an old photograph (someone please slap the jukebox before it plays Nickelback).
Point being, we're in such an advanced state of the game that even a few years ago some players already seem less great than they did at that time.
Anyway, let's get back to the battle and try to narrow this thing down.
1st Round of Cuts
American League
Altuve
Gary Sanchez
Miguel Cabrera
Domingo Santana
Stroman
Hanley
Zimmermann
Britton
Ervin Santana
Pedroia
Tulowitzki
Alex Gordon
Alright, where to start. For starters, I don't like Britton's prospects as the 3rd or 4th option for saves. Jonny Venters did win the award in 2018, but that was under special circumstances. I wanted to root for Alex Gordon here, but the guy can't seem to hit anymore. He's also 35 years old. Then we have Pedroia, who probably just hasn't hit enough of a low to be considered a comeback player. Jordan Zimmermann's velocity has very nearly decreased every year since 2013. Used to love the guy, but he's on a bad team and not the pitcher he once was. After missing the entirety of 2018, Troy Tulowitzki would be a great pick had the Yankees not signed Lamahieu. Factor in a 2nd half return from Gregorious and he's lucky to play half a season's worth of at-bats or so. The problem I have with Jose Altuve is his "down year" was still great. As for Hanley Ramirez, it would appear he received the short end of the stick the way he was pushed out of Boston. I could see a scenario in which he wins the award if he was guaranteed everyday playing time, but with a WRC+ of 92 or less in 3 of the last 4 seasons he doesn't seem like one of the strongest candidates. Domingo Santana is somewhat of an outlier here because his down year could be attributed to the fact that the Brewers forced him to play in the minors for 55 games and he wasn't an every day starter when he was in the majors. Also, he switched leagues so I'm not sure if he could win the award for the American League. Stroman believers will tell you he's a Cy Young caliber pitcher. He's a fine pitcher, sure, but he was lucky in 2017 and was more of a 3.60 ERA pitcher than the 3.09 ERA pitcher his true ERA finalized as, as his FIP would indicate. If he bounces back with a 3.60 ERA, it simply may not look as pretty given the apparent previous high he had set. More importantly, I believe his greatest challengers are Miguel Cabrera, Gary Sanchez, and Ervin Santana. I am loving the idea of picking Ervin Santana, but I can't do it. At his age, it's just risky. He's in a good spot to sneak in and quietly be the #1 or #2 starter in Chicago, but his velocity was down by a lot last year even if it was due to injury. As for Miguel Cabrera, something happened last year that became too hard to ignore (prior to his injury). He started hitting a ton of ground balls. Although his hard contact rate was up, there are signs that he may be a sub-20 home run guy going forward. Plus, he's already days away from turning 36 and is not exactly a prime example of being in good physical shape. Therefore,
The 2019 AL Comeback Player of the Year is: Gary Sanchez
In 2016, Gary Sanchez exploded onto the scene smashing homers left and right. He then followed up his impressive rookie season by hitting 33 home runs during his sophomore season while also putting on a clinic in the home run derby. In 2018, however, Sanchez disappeared. He finished with an 89 WRC+ and failed to hit above the Mendoza line. A closer look would indicate that nothing in his batted ball profile changed remarkably and he had at least some bad luck based on his also sub - .200 BABIP. I'm left to believe Sanchez will rediscover some of his form and turn in another strong year closer to his 2017 season than his 2018.
National League
Bryant
Votto
Blackmon
Strasburg
Donaldson
Darvish
Ozuna
Dozier
Seager
Wacha
Pomeranz
Hosmer
Bumgarner
Ian Kinsler
A bunch of great options here, but Kinsler is the weak link for me. Age is one thing, back-to-back seasons of a WRC+ hovering around 90 is another, and then the dagger: Luis Urias breathing down his neck in AAA on a team that wants to feed its young guys. In 2017, Michael Wacha was quietly very effective. The ERA didn't show it, but in 2018 he simply wasn't pitching well. The deception of his ERAs from those two seasons alone will prevent him from winning the award even if he puts up a really good year. It would take a 200 inning statement season, which seems out of his nature at this point. Joey Votto, baseball's self-appointed humorous villain, has lost some power. He said himself he made an adjustment last year expecting a decline in skills. While the decline was far less than he anticipated, it's my understanding there was still a marginal decline. Even so, he had still a strong year. I think he can bounce back to .300 20-90, but with the offense around him evolving, he may get overlooked. Being 35 years old doesn't help or the fact that he anticipated a decline last year to begin with. I could totally see Eric Hosmer, the most hated man in fantasy, winning the award. Lost in his abysmal 2018 is the fact that he has actually been really good in each of the last three odd-numbered years. Another year NL-wiser, now removed from the lesser Royals' offense, he has the talent around him to succeed...but will he? Brian Dozier feels like the second coming of Dan Uggla, the once powerful second baseman who disappeared after making 30 homers look like a simple yearly routine. That said, I think we were all taken by surprise when Dozier smashed 42 home runs a few seasons ago. He should improve off of last year's freefall, but when a .250 batting average is the ceiling, you're unlikely to get a vast amount of recognition. Charlie Blackmon would need a season for the ages to win comeback player of the year. He set the bar so high in 2017 and Coors is a different beast. Just ask Arenado. Most critics are down on Bumgarner this year and it's reasonable based off of his past two years. It would appear his fluke injuries have effected him despite what looks like not a huge loss in velocity. Oracle park should help, but he needs a big year. His teammate, Drew Pomeranz, saw everything go wrong in 2018 after being a solid starter the previous two seasons. If he can make some small gains control-wise and re-establish his curveball, there is a good opportunity here for a turnaround (also) in Oracle Park. However, there's a lot working against him including better options for the award and a lack of notoriety. Yu Darvish has become polarizing. No one could have expected he'd be as bad as he was in the 2017 World Series, perhaps losing the series single-handedly himself. To make matters worse, he was still not the Darvish of old in 2018 and now no one knows what we're going to see on the mound. He needs to re-establish his slider and I'm not sure I'm ready to dub him as being back yet, especially after walking 7 batters in less than 3 innings in his 2019 debut. When the Cardinals acquired Paul Goldschmidt from the Arizona Diamondbacks, I envisioned Marcell Ozuna would hit behind him as the cleanup hitter. Early on, it's evident that's not the case - the likes of DeJong hitting 3rd behind Goldschmidt and Ozuna serving to protect him. I'm not sure I like this for Ozuna's 2019 outlook. He shouldn't be awful, but I also question if he will ever be the 2017 version we once saw to begin with. Thus, I believe the remaining 4 NL players (Bryant, Donaldson, Strasburg, and Seager) are the most likely to be selected as the recipient of the award in 2019. Because the pros and cons of each are mostly obvious, I'll skip to my selection. Therefore,
The 2019 NL Comeback Player of the Year is: Kris Bryant
A once uber-prospect and former #2 overall draft pick, Bryant was one of the game's elite forces from 2015-2017. In 2018, however, Bryant's offensive performance slipped noticeably and eventually he missed a large amount of time due to a shoulder injury - a probable cause for his loss of production. Heading into 2019, he says his shoulder is 100% healthy and, in turn, we should see Bryant return to elite status. As a face of the game on a big market team, as long as the performance is there, Bryant has a great shot at winning Comeback Player of the Year and I expect he will.
HUGE Thanks to Our Supporters:
Legends:
Brian Jeffcoat
Rookies:
Barry Lawlor
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