(Early April) Long-term Fantasy Heroes & Standout Stats

Posted By: Steven Claxton

This part of the season is what you could call the "first pivot". It's kind of like a marriage in a contrived way; you have the honeymoon phase, I.e. opening day and the several days that follow, and then certain things start to materialize at this stage.

I like that.

Not so much the marriage talk...but we begin to see some regression to the mean. Baseball is such a stat-focused game and that's a big reason some are drawn to it. I'd imagine that can be a draw for the players themselves even - knowing to shoot for a .300 batting average or a 3.00 ERA.

No, we can't - or shouldn't - assume things, however we have a strong perception of likelihood. For instance, the Mariners likely won't continue to perform at an 11-2 win-loss pace.

While I do enjoy some stats regressing, whether positively or negatively, and having that clarity - I definitely enjoy unexpected performances, too. You're talking to someone who was formerly a serious Red Sox fan around the year(s) leading up to 2004.

If every #1 draft pick became the best player as expected while later picks failed, what would even be the point? We honestly wouldn't enjoy the game (even if that works more clearly for other sports).

For example, I'd venture to say J.D. Martinez - a former 20th round draft pick who was abandoned by the team that drafted him - is perhaps one of the top 3 pure hitters in baseball.

People seem to forget that these players are people and, like us, have to adjust to fame, injuries, pitches, and other changes. The same way in which the honeymoon phases of our personal marriages can potentially fade can happen to athletes just as well. And the same way a person on welfare can eventually put themselves through college and obtain greater success applies to sports equally at times (in comparison to being a low draft pick).

We talked about "heroes" in the last article and there are heroes, if you will, sitting on your waiver wire or playing for your favorite team who will provide dividends at a better-than-anticipated rate. (This could also be because of an accelerated call-up to the major leagues - such as when Tatis Jr. was placed on the opening day roster.)

~Heroes (players who could win you your league - how and why)~

Ramon Laureano - I started to like Laureano as a 2019 sleeper as the 2018 season neared its end. As the off-season progressed, his hype gained a bit of traction. Early returns, however, have some jumping ship in favor of the hot hand.

He's obviously talented as he continues to make it a daily habit of adding another outfield assist to his resume. I think of other center fielders who were once viewed as one-dimensional and "defense first", ala Pillar or Kiermaier or even Byron Buxton and Aaron Hicks at times. I see a mold there and Laureano appears to be walking right into it.

I really think it's just about knowing what role a player will serve for your fantasy, or even real-life, team. I don't see why Laureano can't finish as a 20-20 player who can hit for a .260 batting average with it. Relative to where you drafted him, coupled with understanding he's a 3rd OF - maybe 4th - type, that's a guy who could round out a team nicely. The potential to take those few steps into Aaron Hicks #2 OF territory only makes it sweeter.

The strikeout rate is my one concern, but the numbers suggest he should be able to at least keep it from snowballing.

Brandon Lowe - I honestly was not a huge Lowe guy heading into the season - much of which was due to how many Lowes are on the Rays and that I wasn't keeping up with separating them all.

In case you missed it, the Rays extended Lowe recently which shows that the team has some faith in him. So far, he's hitting the ball extremely hard this year with a hard contact rate of over 50%, but he's hitting way too many ground balls with it. His ceiling reminds me a little of Evan Longoria when he was with the Rays, strangely enough.

That said, I would expect less RBIs and home runs in comparison. Prime Longoria was a 30-35 home run guy and I see Lowe as more of a 25 home run hitter - with the remainder turning into doubles.

I would feel comfortable with him as my everyday 2B/SS and, in some leagues, my everyday second baseman. He is also outfield eligible across some platforms so that certainly gives you some extra flexibility for your roster, as well.

Additionally, just glancing at the Rays' roster, I could easily see a scenario in which Lowe finds himself as the everyday #3 hitter behind Meadows and Pham - which should benefit him.

Andrew Miller - I'm not saying slot him in as one of your closers immediately, or in your starting roster at all, but just 2 seasons ago we were looking at one of the top 3 relievers in the game. I know I'm biased living in the St. Louis area, but his stock is in freefall and he's someone to keep an eye on or stash in deep leagues because of it. Jordan Hicks may throw a gazillion miles an hour, but he also walked 5+ per 9 innings last year. Miller still has respectable velocity and it would only take a couple of weeks of changes for him to become a respectable asset in holds leagues with a 35 save, 3.00 ERA ceiling.

Eloy Jimenez - Jimenez gained his first extra-base hit Wednesday, so some of you who were panicking can breathe a little more freely. He's also strung together multi-hit games in 3 of his last 5. If he was dropped, I'd pick him up immediately. It's been a rocky start, but it could click at any moment. I wish the White Sox had a better lineup around him, but it's not anemic and maybe it will make him mentally stronger early in his career. There's nothing to suggest you should abandon ship so early as Jimenez is as clear a potential league-winner as any.

Dansby Swanson - Swanson looks excellent so far. Whatever Chipper Jones has done with him is paying huge dividends. Every metric I look at paints a very pretty picture. Sustainability is the question as he's never performed this well as a professional. I don't want to go all-in too soon, but this is absolutely someone who should be picked up immediately and at least be on your bench. On the safe side, I think a fair comp is Andrelton Simmons, but I also think the potential is there for him to be a Daniel Murphy type of hitter.

Michael Wacha - I think it has been forgotten how highly touted Wacha was years ago. As a minor leaguer, I believe his changeup was considered to be a devastating offering. Fast-forward a few years later, and it just hasn't all come together. He doesn't seem to pitch particularly deep into games and he has also had a few minor injuries. It sometimes feels like he's a talented pitcher who just doesn't feel like a pitcher himself. Wacha is set to be a free agent after this season so he should be pitching for a contract. I'm all for stashing upside and I don't hate him as a bench stash.

Arizona Diamondbacks - It seems like sometimes the dynamics and sum of a team surpass its perceived talent. I think of the Giants of the last several years - or the Royals when they small-balled their way to the World Series - or even the Rockies as a franchise given how "Coors" is synonymous with the team. I guess it's not necessarily new for the Diamondbacks if you think back to their World Series title, but it feels like the humidor has brought back a bit of that throwback Arizona feel.

They don't have any outstanding major league pieces, other than the ceiling of Robbie Ray and the long-term outlook for Duplantier, but they seem to have enough quality parts to equal a better sum in the sense that some players may be able to overperform in 2019.

Julio Urias - Urias once said, "God gave me a bad left eye, but a great left arm". I'm paraphrasing, but I've never lost faith in the hype and it was devastating when he went down with injury. A quote like that only makes me believe in him more. Early numbers show that his average fastball velocity of 95.1 is 2mph higher than any of his previous major league seasons. Whether it means moving to a 6 man rotation or it's because of injuries, I expect Urias to capitalize on his opportunities sooner rather than later - outside of an innings cap. Urias, for me, is a future elite SP.

Dereck Rodriguez - It's foolish to buy into his 2.81 ERA last year, but Pudge's son still projected for roughly a 3.0 WAR season - which is very serviceable. He doesn't seem to have great stuff, but he seems to know how to use it. Often overlooked, it wouldn't be surprising to see him match or even outperform the aging Bumgarner in 2019.

Dallas Keuchel - I think people are tired of the Keuchel saga - as they are with Kimbrel, but Kimbrel is profiled to be much more valuable - to the point that he's being undervalued. I expect a team to cave in at some point and sign Keuchel. He's not elite, but he is effective and would make a respectable addition to a rotation.

Joey Gallo/Asdrubal Cabrera - Joey Gallo is so interesting to me because I'm not sure there's ever been a player like this. This is a guy who, if the stars aligned, could break the all-time home run record with a sub .250 career batting average. I don't want to get ahead of myself to that extent, but every now and then an exception to the rule comes along.

His batting average doesn't show it, but he has shown incredible improvements so far this season in a small sample size based on all of his metrics. I'm starting to believe Joey Gallo is a name we will be hearing for the next several years.

As for Cabrera, I already loved him going into the year and nothing has changed. I hope the Rangers keep these two close in the lineup as they should each benefit from the other. Arlington is a great place to hit and the Rangers would be wise to keep Cabrera around for a few years.

Jose Alvarado - With a 2.1 WAR last season, that's not too far from the production of Andrew Miller in his dominant run between 2014-2017. I'm surprised he went underappreciated this year in fantasy drafts, frankly.

His velocity is through the roof. There's a GIF/clip out there somewhere of an awesone two-seam fastball he threw recently I'd look up on Google. All this guy has to do is keep his control in check. Between he and Osuna, I think we're seeing something of a changing of the guard in terms of some younger closers shooting up the closing ranks.

Jesse Winker - I can't believe how quickly some people gave up on Jessie Winker. I started to write this before he hit his second homer in as many nights, but that definitely reinforces my belief that he could win you your league. I've heard some refer to him as "Baby Votto", which seems strong, but he certainly seems like he could at least be the Mitch Haniger of 2019.

I'd buy low or stash everywhere that I could. The Reds aren't playing well yet, but this is an offense that could go on a lengthy run. Senzel and Gennett will only boost the value of Winker. This could still be the top offense of 2019.

Brad Keller - Among the underappreciated players, Keller might be one of the most potentially valuable of the bunch. His fastball already appeared to be valuable and early returns suggest his slider has improved. There's still a few kinks to be made, but the former Diamondbacks' player could coincidentally be a modern day Brandon Webb.

Aledmys Diaz - People forget how great Diaz was with the Cardinals for a stretch of time and he actually appeared to have gained some of that back last year with the Toronto Blue Jays. We all know the Astros have a habit of turning pitchers into gold, but they also are pretty good at getting more out of their hitters. Even though Diaz should only be a super utility player, he could still accrue 400 at-bats. He's only a super deep prospective play, but an injury could open the door.

Jordan Lyles - Not sure what changed last year for Lyles, but something did. His fastball became a plus pitch and he looks to be a useful fantasy streamer with potential for a Pittsburgh resurrection. Don't go bananas, but also don't be surprised if he finds a way to keep his ERA a hair under 4.00 while logging up to 150 innings.

Niko Goodrum - Goodrum felt kind of like Tim Anderson to me at first, but a closer look suggests he could be more than that. I don't love Detroit's lineup, but he could wind up being their 3rd best hitter behind Cabrera and Castellanos - which means he would then bat in a good spot in the lineup. I would also like to see him make some improvements off of last year's performance. He's a guy to keep in mind in a pinch.

Matt Boyd - Matt Boyd has been carving hitters up in 2019 thus far, however, his 29 Ks in 17 innings is bound to regress. Just how much, though? It's still too early to tell what exactly Boyd's done, but it looks like he has 3 quality pitches and he has figured out what works for him. I would add him everywhere in case his breakout is legitimate. All offseason, we wondered who would be the next Blake Snell and I'd say he's a pretty decent candidate at this rate.

Cubs' pitchers - Recently, Jon Lester was placed on the injured list and will be unable to "headline" the rotation. I view this as a good turn of events because the Cubs needed a shakeup and it's best that it happened early. Someone in that rotation has to step up at this point - or perhaps the organization makes a trade or a minor leaguer excels. The rotation was disturbing even heading into the year and now is a good time to see what this large-market team is made of.

Byron Buxton - At this point, you're probably either pro-Buxton or you're just not. I don't need to delve into the past. He's immensely talented and athletic as proven by his league-best speed and gold glove caliber defense. The Twins need Buxton to be the centerpiece and I expect a top 50 hitter in 2019. Buy-low where you can and it may not be a terrible idea to buy-high either.

~Some Standout Stats~

1. Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, and Tim Anderson all have a BABIP of .500 or higher.

2. Paul Goldschmidt, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Jessie Winker all have a BABIP of .160 or lower

3. Christian Walker leads the majors with a hard contact rate of 72%
4. Niko Goodrum leads the majors with a 42.3% line drive rate
5. Brian Dozier and Miguel Cabrera are both among the top 10 in highest ground ball %
6. Joey Votto is 4th among highest fly ball rates
7. Among the top 10 in highest soft contact % are Maikel Franco, Brian Dozier, Kolten Wong, Edwin Encarnacion, Yasiel Puig, and Jose Ramirez
8. Cody Bellinger is leading the majors in effectiveness vs. both curveball and changeups each
9. Chris Sale and Aaron Nola are #1 and #2 in worst FIP among SPs
10. Zack Greinke and Aaron Nola have allowed a combined 11 home runs in 31 and 2/3 innings
11. Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander are 2nd and 3rd in highest hard contact % allowed
12. Jose Berrios has induced the most soft contact in the majors at a rate of 33.3%
13. Lucas Giolito is among the top 5 in best ground ball to fly ball ratio
14. Early reports suggest the most effective fastball belongs to Trevor Williams, slider to Carlos Rodon (followed by Yusei Kikuchi), curveball to Jose Berrios, and changeup to Mike Minor (followed by Luis Castillo)

~Other Thoughts~

-Carlos Correa is raking again. Hope he can just stay healthy.

-Gleyber Torres has a really bright future

-Jack Flaherty is really close to being elite

-Mariners would kill for a #3 SP or shutdown reliever right now

-Jose Ureña remains out of place in a talented Marlins' rotation

-Chris Archer showing immaturity in what has the potential to be an elite rotation

-Mets need Zach Wheeler to reach their ceiling

-Padres need starting pitching between now and Gore/Espinoza/Weathers era

FINAL NOTES: 1) I decided not to delve into injuries as a separate topic and instead mentioned them among the other topics. 2) Please note that there are always more players on my mind - I just choose not to discuss or mention every one of them, especially if those players are frequently talked about everywhere else. 3) Please remember the stats within are all based off of only two weeks of gameplay (very small sample size!). 4) The statistics used within the article are not up-to-the-minute accurate with there being games daily.

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