Juice, Youth, and Aces: April in Review

Photo Credit & Permission: Phil Chmiel

Posted By: Steven Claxton

Three days after the call-up of that one guy who is the son of that other guy who used to play baseball and is now in the Hall of Fame, major league baseball has now reached its one month mark into the 2019 season (plus the Japan series).

It's difficult to speak of April without talking about what's transpired the last few days, but the home run that was hit by another top 100 prospect the same night of Jr.'s promotion is a reminder of the fact that there are still 29 other teams and a slew of other top prospects...and, of course, a month of amazing baseball that didn't include Jr.

Don't get me wrong...I don't hate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at all! In fact, my likely favorite player of all time, Manny Ramirez, just might be his fairest comparison. It's just that the hype reached a point that was similar to what it felt like working as a pizza delivery driver as I tried to get through college. The weekend rush would hit and the frenzied repetition would continue to ensue.

Between deliveries, phones would ring off the hook, boxes would disappear faster than I could stock them - all the while, patrons lined up at the door - some looking at me like I was the idiot I felt like I was as I struggled to keep up in a job that never suited me.

And so, we're Vlad Jr.'s idiots.

But lost in the shuffle of the never-ending extensions and Vlad Day, however, were the promotions of several other prospects - and with the return of the forever-known-as "juiced" ball...(Not to mention the league changes put in place by commissioner Manfred - I.e. the injured list and three batter minimum.)...it sure feels like we have a new MLB entirely.

In a way, it's exciting. In another, it's frightening to think that we could tinker with our beloved pastime too much and lose some of the joy of America's Game. Such is the future, though!

We've now already seen Eloy Jimenez, Tatis Jr., Luis Urias, Carter Kieboom, Chris Paddack, Justus Sheffield, Pete Alonso, Jon Duplantier, Luis Rengifo, Michael Chavis, and are anticipating the debut of Griffin Canning on Tuesday. I'm positive I even missed a few.

These are some big names as far as prospects go and I think, as we've talked about before, we're in for some potential superstars-in-the-making as a result of the abundance of promotions that have both already occurred and are likely to follow suit as a result of earlier promotions.

I love it and, as fans, we all should. Though Bo Bichette recently broke his hand (and was a long shot to make an impact this year anyway), it would be a comfortable prediction to suggest that Cavan Biggio is knocking on the door of joining Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the majors - the duo contributing greatly to a young and inspiring organization.

Enough prospect pleasure, though. Let's talk about what's happening in the majors now.

Hitters - What's New?

Home runs are flying out of the park left and right...(and center?). Cody Bellinger looks like Barry Bonds and Christian Yelich is right behind him. In spite of the home run spike, though, many of the usual suspects are performing as the game's best.

Yelich has continued where he left off last year. Trout is 3rd in WAR (as always, per Fangraphs). Baez, Acuña, Bregman, Rendon, Story are also all top 25 in WAR at the time of this writing - as well as the rising Matt Chapman. All is good in the baseball world.

But wait! Paul DeJong, Hunter Dozier, Pete Alonso, Tim Anderson, Alex Gordon, Trey Mancini, Kolten Wong, and Christian Walker are all also among the top 25 in WAR. What's going on? Is it sustainable?

The truth is it's even still too early to know for the most part, but I do think some of these guys may be able to perform well all year.

Paul DeJong has improved his strikeout rate dramatically. While I wasn't initially a fan of him batting 3rd earlier in the month, the results are largely indisputable. I don't think he is worthy of being 4th overall in WAR, but I'm ready to admit DeJong is a good player - something I wasn't yet ready to do last year primarily because of his high strikeout rate and low walk rate. I think Didi Gregorious is a fair comparison - with more upside.

Pete Alonso has done exactly as we thought he could in terms of hitting the ball with authority. He's even kept his strikeout rate within reason. Currently sitting at .309, it looks like he may in fact be able to (proving critics wrong) maintain a batting average over .250. His average will drop for sure, but he's hitting the ball very hard when he makes contact and is certainly demonstrating staying power. He has a bit of Khris Davis to him. Especially because of the apparent juiced ball, Alonso could be a 35+ home run hitter annually.

Hunter Dozier is a guy I never thought I'd say I like, but I do. I am pleased with his early season results and his plate discipline. The #8 overall pick from the 2013 draft was essentially considered a bust after last season and now the 27 year old looks like a completely different hitter. Ignore the name; this is someone who should be invested in in fantasy leagues immediately.

Tim Anderson has a BABIP of .462. There's little to suggest he is a changed hitter.

Alex Gordon looks to have turned back the clock a bit as his numbers are great across the board. My guess is he's healthy and feeling good. He won't be a stud, and while a renaissance year is plausible, he's likely at best a 3rd outfielder in 3 outfielder leagues for 2019 as his exit velocity and hard-hit percentage are both just average.

Nothing has really changed on my views of Trey Mancini or Kolten Wong either. Wong has already fallen off and Mancini, while solid, likely won't be great.

Christian Walker actually bares resemblance to Pete Alonso in terms of hard-hit rate, exit velocity, and plate discipline, but there's that 10-15% difference between the two that separates Walker from Alonso for worse. Walker has shown he can be a useful bat for a major league team, but I'm not ready to over-invest long-term. I think he will regress a bit.

Yandy Diaz is loved by many right now and has been for weeks and, I must say, I still don't buy it. I think he is a quality major leaguer, but not some 30-35 home run fantasy lineup mainstay. That said, I was certainly wrong about his power coming into the year. Nothing suggested he would be a power hitter, but 20-25 seems attainable now.

David Peralta and Elvis Andrus both have BABIPs over .400. Steady players, but keep that in mind as regression is inevitable for the two.

Brandon Lowe has a .388 BABIP and a 33.7% K rate. This is the profile of a player who could fall flat on his face at any moment. I liked him earlier in the year, but his K-rate has gotten out of hand.

David Dahl is someone I stayed away from in drafts this year and I'm still glad that I did. I wasn't against having him on my team, but the price was absurd. One month into the season and it would appear that he's been great, but his BABIP of .489 is just silly and should alone suggest that there is major correction heading his way. Coors will still inflate his value, but just remember that number - .489!

Alex Verdugo is really interesting. His low strikeout rate bodes well for his future success. He seems like a guy who could bat .300 regularly. I just don't know to what extent his power will end up being. If I had to guess, I'd say he is a 20 home run guy with a lot of doubles. Anthony Rendon lite is a good description.

Jessie Winker is a player I love going forward. If he's available in your league, he is a must-own. His BABIP sits at a lowly .220 and he's just too good of a hitter for it to stay there. Expect a significant hot streak.

Jose Ramirez, Anthony Rizzo, and Mookie Betts, are in similar positions as they each have low BABIP, as well. They will be fine.

Eugenio Suarez, Yasiel Puig, and A.J. Pollock will be fine.

I'm having doubts about Justin Turner, but I'm not ready to give up. He's hitting a ton of ground balls and his BABIP is fine, but his great track record should have us believing the power returns. Though not a fantasy superstar, he has been an excellent real life hitter over the years.

Gleyber Torres is one of the more difficult hitters to assess. He is hitting a healthier amount of ground balls after being more of a fly ball hitter last year. I'd like to believe he's adjusting, but I'm just not sure. His walk rate is down, as well. At just 22, he should be good, if not great, eventually. I just don't know exactly when or how as it seems like something that could happen a month from now...or 3 years from now.

It looks like I was a little quick to buy in on Dansby Swanson, as well.

I also love the outlook for Ozzie Albies, Carlos Correa, and...gasp...Byron Buxton.

Pitchers - What's New?

Max Scherzer may have an ERA above 4.00, but he's still tied for the league lead in WAR among pitchers - to pair nicely with a 2.24 FIP and his usual stellar peripherals. Great chance to buy low here.

James Paxton is the fellow tied with Scherzer in WAR. Paxton looks to be a great fit as a Yankee and is on pace for 300 strikeouts. Strangely, he of all people has been the player to avoid injury as everyone else around him falls. I would be very surprised if he keeps pace with Scherzer, but he's still an elite option. His 32.9% fly ball % as a pitcher who plays in Yankee Stadium means some home run regression could be in store.

Marcus Stroman has a pristine 1.43 ERA, but I still feel the same as I did early in the season. I don't expect an ERA less than 3.40 for the year - 3.25 at best - and his xFIP of 3.75 further suggests as much.

One look at Marco Gonzales' numbers and you might believe he is an ace, but he seems to be the same pitcher as last year still. He's a quality arm, but he's pitched above his head. His K-rate is only 6.80 and it's pretty difficult to be elite with that mark. That's a full K less than last year and, to make matters worse, his velocity is 2 mph less as well (88.6). It looks like his cutter has become his bread and butter, but such low velocity will make it hard to continue to succeed. He may not be able to repeat 2018's numbers either because of it.

Matt Boyd is a guy I'm buying into. His FIP is excellent and his strikeouts have jumped considerably. He's generating a nice amount of soft contact to go with it. His fastball has improved dramatically and explains his success. He is, however, mostly a two pitch pitcher so that would seem to be a potential downfall as the season goes on.

Luis Castillo's changeup has been devastating and his fastball has been strong, as well. If he can keep his control in check, he should easily stick around as a top 20 pitcher. Beware if the home runs start to come back, though.

Joe Musgrove is someone I did not buy last year, but he has basically repeated his success so far. I think he is a good pitcher - a #3 type. His velocity has dropped from 94.0 mph to 91.7 mph, though, which is really concerning. That would seem like something that would hold him back from being anything above, "good, but not great". If his velocity jumps back up, he could possibly make further gains.

Jose Quintana has made a seemingly good comeback. Whatever he's doing with his fastball is working and is the reason he's succeeding. I'm willing to call last year an outlier already.

I like Caleb Smith as a top 25 starter. He appears to have three plus pitches and has the benefit of being left-handed. Having only thrown 77 innings in 2018, he would probably have an innings cap - and it also remains to be seen how he will respond as the innings pile up.

His teammate, Pablo Lopez, is also inspiring. He's still figuring it out, but he will get there. He has easy velocity and some of his changeups that I've seen were beautiful. I expect a good year in 2019 with the potential to be a top 15 starter in 2020.

I hate to admit it, but I am slightly concerned about Trevor Bauer. Maybe it would be easier to let it be if not for his overwhelming personality. He was nearly perfect last year, yet he continues to tweak things and it's scary. His walks are up, his Ks are a bit down, and his XFIP and SIERA are not spectacular. I'd like to believe he will work it out before he gets ahead of himself, but you just don't know with him. Your best bet is to probably keep him on your fantasy team, but if you could trade him for the single most dependable elite pitcher, Max Scherzer, in a redraft while his ERA is still a sparkling 1.99...I'd say do it.

A couple intriguing pitchers: Brandon Woodruff, Joey Lucchessi

Pitchers I'm being patient with: Chris Sale, Walker Buehler, Stephen Strasburg, Jack Flaherty, Zack Wheeler, and Corey Kluber (though he's pushing it)

Pitchers I'm getting concerned about: Masahiro Tanaka, Yusei Kikuchi, and Brad Keller

Sell high ASAP: Aaron Sanchez

As for relievers, I'm worried about Kenley Jansen. He's just not the ace reliever he was before 2018. His velocity has minimally declined over the last few years and he just can't stop giving up home runs. He's still inducing a good amount of soft contact, but he's lost some polish on his pitches and it's showing. He's now a low 3s ERA guy whereas he was previously a sub 2.50 ERA pitcher.

Oppositely, I love Ty Buttrey and consider him a must-add in the event that he becomes the Angels' closer.

Now a reliever, Ian Kennedy is also very interesting and worth a look.

Taking A Look at the Rookies

I already feel queasy about having picked Eloy Jimenez to win Rookie of the Year. He hasn't been very good and it has looked like his stance has been inconsistent to make matters worse. He also just hit the injured list.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the supreme talent to begin with and I'd say the odds of him winning AL ROY have increased significantly. If I could do it over, I would have picked Vlad Jr. - guess we will see.

Of course, the award doesn't mean a player is the best prospect - it merely means he had the best rookie year. Michael Fulmer beating out Gary Sanchez a few years ago is indicative of that. And with all of the prospects being promoted, there are likely to be at least a few other potential suitors of the AL ROY award.

But forget about the award for now and let's just talk prospects. For starters, I really like Luis Rengifo. I discussed him in my Trying to Find The Next Superstar articles. I like him as a prospect because he has a skill-set that can benefit him immediately and that centers around speed. He could easily steal a solid 35 bases as a rookie. Rookies and prospects are not always finished products which is all the more reason why I think he should be a focus for fantasy teams.

Carter Kieboom is the going for broke pick. Many would say he has superstar upside and I wouldn't completely disagree. He had a great stint in AAA prior to his call-up...it's just that his BABIP was .512. I see a lot of raw ability, but 2020 might be the breakout year as opposed to 2019. I believe the strikeouts will catch up to him before too long. After all, he's still only 21 years old.

Michael Chavis is also interesting. He would seem like a guy that could win ROY yet not be anywhere near the same level as Vlad Jr. as their careers unravel. He has struggled with strikeouts in the past, though, and that will be a big factor. Plus, the 2nd base bag in Boston might as well have "Pedroia" engraved into it. I expect good power, but the batting average could be questionable. It won't take much of a prolonged slump to get sent back down to AAA for Chavis.

We still can't forget about Jesus Luzardo either. His injury really put a dent into what was expected to be a strong year. I still think, if healthy, he could be a fantasy asset and a good pitcher for the Athletics this year even at his ripe age of 21.

Gaining steam is Cavan Biggio. Now that we've had Vlad Jr. Day, he seems likely to join him in the near future given how successful he's been in AAA so far this year. My gut says he will be good, but with a capped ceiling - but as I've said before - he could be excellent.

In the NL, Pete Alonso has made quite the splash in the early goings and would seem to be the biggest threat to Tatis Jr. for top rookie. Similar to Eloy Jimenez, Tatis Jr. also just went down with an injury, as well, though. Tatis has yet to hit the IL, but we'll see how his hamstring effects him going forward.

I expect Nick Senzel to be very very good whenever he gets the call. The Reds are rounding into form and he will be a key addition. He's certainly a dark horse for ROY, the one concern being the amount of at-bats he accrues in comparison to Alonso and Tatis Jr.

I still love Chris Paddack and he has paid huge dividends thus far. He obviously can't maintain a sub-2 ERA, but he seems like a guy who could potentially be this year's Blake Snell.

Victor Robles is clearly a solid all-around player, but he is striking out at a 30% clip. This is something he needs to improve upon soon before he sees his numbers take a steep dive. The future is bright for the 21 year old, but it could be a rough season for Robles.

That's all I have for now. Thanks for reading!

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