The Twilight Zone? Week 1 In Review!
Posted by: Steven Claxton
But ya' gotta "make do".
That's kind of like what some of the major league teams are doing - even if we're at complete opposing levels of importance. Let's see, the Rays are perched atop the AL East (contrasting with Boston sitting in last place). The Orioles just behind them in 2nd place with a record of 4 wins and 2 losses. And who can forget the unstoppable Mariners who've earned 7 wins against just 1 loss - led, in part, by the ML leader in batter's WAR, Tim Beckham (per Fangraphs.com)?
My local annual 8th place hitter, Kolten Wong, even finds himself among top 10 in batter's WAR.
Fantasy-wise, I have already seen Mike Trout, Chris Sale, JD Martinez, and Paul Goldschmidt traded in my own fantasy league.
Maybe we're just a bad league.
Still, it's a good example of the occasional similar league somewhere else 20 miles away, for example.
The Twilight Zone state of baseball never felt so...un...twilight-y.
Even with the crows scattered about, I'd like to believe we all know that the Red Sox - in spite of the loss of Craig Kimbrel and the momentary health concerns of Chris Sale - are going to triple, if not come close to (again) quadruple, their current win percentage of 16.6.
The Yankees, as well, are in a tough position. Their major league dynasty will be without Stanton for a few weeks or so, have lost Andujar for what's expected to be a lengthy absence, are amid the already-planned-for loss of Didi Gregorious, have seen moderate injuries to Betances and Severino, are stuck with a banged-up Aaron Hicks, and even are dealing with velocity concerns surrounding flamethrowing finisher, Aroldis Chapman.
Yet, currently at 2-4, there's an above average chance the Yankees can still touch 90 wins because, as a dynasty, they build reasonable depth. For example, they signed former Mr. 0.54 ERA, 47 saves, Zach Britton. As well, they signed the ever reliable, provided good health, Troy "Tulo" Tulowitzki (ironically, he actually suffered an injury as I was writing this), and infield swingman, DJ Lemahieu. And who can forget Babe Ruth's nemesis, Adam Ottavino, and still-star prospect, Clint Frazier, politely waiting in AAA - akin to a freshman in high school with his hand raised, waiting for his attractive English teacher to call on him for the answer.
Who knows if Frazier has the answer, but he's certainly miles better than some of the guys the Giants were throwing out there before trading for stud outfielder, Kevin Pillar. And I'm positive Frazier is likely better than a few major league regulars out there, too, and several backups. Throw in the Yanks' respectable farm system - ranked 15th in the majors by Bleacher Report - and finances, and the team will find a way to win. It's not like they still don't have Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, and James Paxton to name a few.
I know I'm beating a dead horse on driving that particular point home so I'll stop on a dime right there.
Team Takeaways From Week 1
Tampa Bay Rays are contenders. Last year's 90 wins was not a complete fluke. I'm counting on above-.500 play with the overall potential at sniffing 93 wins.
Baltimore Orioles' David Hess may have thrown a partial no-hitter, but let's not get carried away with the Andrew Cashner-led pitching staff. With a slew of near-ready prospects, however, and the somewhat formidable duo of Villar and Mancini, they just might have enough to be closer to 70 wins than 50.
Boston Red Sox had a small chance at repeating 108 wins again to begin with, but they haven't lost enough to not be a 95+ win team even if something happens to Chris Sale.
Seattle Mariners are better than we thought. It's as simple as that. They should flirt with .500, but I expect the woes of the bullpen to prevent them from repeating last year's 89 wins barring trades or minor league talent.
Houston Astros have struggled out of the gate, but should still be considered an elite force even with the losses of Keuchel, Morton, McCullers and the potential Verlander cliff that could come any year now.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have yet another year of pitchers' injuries on their plate and it's concerning. They're generally a team that finds a way to be decent, but they've also lost Justin Upton for 3 months. Don't be surprised if they slip into the bottom 5 teams in 2019. 2020 should be bright, though.
Philadelphia Phillies are a force. A lovely offense, formidable bullpen, and a pitching staff fronted by budding superstar, Aaron Nola. It should have been expected after the off-season they had. As long as whom one famed analyst once jokingly referred to as "Crazy Gabe" doesn't interfere, I anticipate a 1st or 2nd place division finish.
New York Mets were a team I made a bet on to make it to the World Series during the offseason. I think I may have actually bet that they would play the Rays (hey, the payout odds were nice!). While I have lesser hopes for the Rays, the pitching staff of the Mets' trio, deGrom/Syndergaard/Wheeler is shades of Zito/Mulder/Hudson or, dare I say, Maddu-...ok, I'll stop there. But it's up there. And they've made the moves to be a nice bullpen and offense. Assuming good health, anything less than 90 wins would be an underperformance.
Washington Nationals may have lost Bryce Harper and could now be without Trea Turner for what I'm only guessing as being 1-2 months, but are still a well-built team led by top 3 SP, Max Scherzer, and wunderkind Juan Soto - among several other great players. A mild to deep playoff run is absolutely on the table.
Atlanta Braves are going to "live and die" by their offense and that's oftentimes not a good thing. They certainly could have made some moves regarding the rotation, but it kind of looks like they're playing the endgame here with the likes of Soroka, Wright, Fried, Anderson - including the quality arms of Foltynewicz and Gausman. I can easily see this team finishing 4th in a loaded division this season because of it.
Miami Marlins are saying, "Trust in Jeter". I guess? (*Throws both palms in the air in a confused manner*). Sometimes, it feels like Jeter has always had luck on his side and he may have caught lightning in a bottle with Pablo Lopez, Brian Anderson, Caleb Smith - and to a lesser extent, Sandy Alcantara. This will be an interesting team going forward.
Milwaukee Brewers, simply put, appear locked and loaded and ready to try to repeat their 2018 success.
St. Louis Cardinals made a spectacular acquisition in their quest for Paul Goldschmidt. I feel like I've talked about this too much as it is. A little concerned with the quality of the rotation, but they should be involved in what could be a gritty four-horse race atop the NL Central.
Chicago Cubs remain an enigma. Four-fifths of the rotation consists of pitchers who are each past their prime. Can the lore of their pasts be enough to carry the pitching staff as a whole? The depth of their offense should be enough to make them contenders.
Cincinnati Reds made a slew of moves this off-season of which should help them greatly. 2019 feels like a nice start, but perhaps 2020 is the year in which they start to find that extra bit of success to eek out one, two, or all of the division's big three.
Los Angeles Dodgers look poised for a superb year after electing to not go all-in on Bryce Harper and, despite the woes of Clayton Kershaw, this is a World Series caliber team.
Arizona Diamondbacks are one of the more questionable teams. I could see many of their starters being either above-average or equally below-average. All factors considered, they don't have any slam-dunk players. There's enough there to surprise, but I have my expectations tempered.
Arizona Diamondbacks are one of the more questionable teams. I could see many of their starters being either above-average or equally below-average. All factors considered, they don't have any slam-dunk players. There's enough there to surprise, but I have my expectations tempered.
San Diego Padres are loaded in the minors and now have a nice thing going on in the bigs. Coming off a 66-win season, they look primed to approach .500 ball. 2020 and beyond could be special.
Player Takeaways From Week 1
Hot starts I'm not buying:
Kolten Wong - I live near St. Louis and Wong has shown flashes here and there, but in my opinion he's not the next Lindor. If he's made gains this year, he's maybe Rougned Odor.
Yandy Diaz - I don't think he will be particularly bad, but nothing really suggests he's more than a .300 BA and a healthy doubles total. I heard one analyst peg him at 17 home runs and, to me, even 10 seems like a maybe.
Trey Mancini - His rookie season, minus .020 in batting average, seems like his ceiling. There's a flickering candle of potential in the distance, but his plate discipline alone is an enormous red flag.
Jordan Zimmermann - A once promising pitcher, injuries have taken a good deal away from him. His fastball velocity continues to decline. Early statistics show he's throwing his fastball less, but I expect hitters to catch up to him eventually.
Madison Bumgarner - Two starts in and his ERA may lead you to believe the pitcher known as MadBum is back. Hate to be the pessimist, but critics were down on him entering the year and nothing has changed. (Week 1 syndrome). I think he can find a way to keep his ERA under 4, but I'm not sure we'll ever see low-3s ERA vintage Bumgarner - although due to the nature of his injuries, if anyone could bounce back, it's him.
Carlos Rodon - It seems like every year Carlos Rodon receives more respect than he deserves. His control has haunted his career thus far and I've heard some rumblings from others that he lacks motivation. While I can't attest to that, he has allowed 4+ walks per 9 innings in back to back seasons with an underwhelming combined WAR of 1.4 in those 190 innings. Throw in the injury history and it's a fade for me, even though the potential is there.
Hot Starts I Am Buying:
Christian Yelich - Like some others, I was skeptical Christian Yelich could do what he did in 2018 again. I knew he had improved, but not quite to that extent. So far, he's picked up right where he left off and I finally feel like we're seeing a special player. Going all in.
Cody Bellinger - It's true I collect his baseball cards and that he's one of only two players I really collect at all. Call me biased. It's also true he slammed 39 home runs on his way to winning Rookie of the Year in 2017. After a down-ish sophomore season, Bellinger has sprung out of the gate hot with 5 home runs in 6 games. I'm all in on Bellinger as a top 20 hitter.
Yoan Moncada - While he hasn't quite put up the counting stats of Yelich or Bellinger, he's done well early. I was in on him as a post-hype breakout player and I still am. This guy has all the tools to be the special player we thought he'd be as a rookie. For now, I'll say he can put up a .260 BA with 20 home runs and 35 steals. I especially like the arrival of Eloy Jimenez for his future.
Matt Chapman - I always think of defensive studs as potential future offensive threats. To be an excellent fielder means that a player is athletically gifted. Who's to say you can't use that athleticism to succeed offensively? Of course, this is more Of a thought than a rule of thumb. Chapman did, however, post a 137 WRC+ in 2018 - demonstrating that he could be a great hitter. It is unfortunate for him that he plays in Oakland Colliseum as I tend to expect up to 10% less production, but then again Khris Davis keeps hitting 45 home runs there. I think Matt Chapman is Kris Bryant lite. I still don't know what the ceiling is here, but 30 home runs and 90 RBI with a .275 BA seem realistic. I'm buying, but I'm not all in just yet.
Marco Gonzales - It seemed like Gonzales slipped under the radar a little in drafts this year and I believe it's because he's misunderstood. Just as we draft certain players for home runs or certain players for stolen bases, we should be looking at Marco Gonzales as a quality start guy. Last year, he demonstrated good control and, although the strikeout numbers weren't great, he amassed a nice WAR of 3.5 in only 166 innings. I can only guess his 4.00 ERA scared drafters away, but this is a guy who can quietly end up as your #2 or #3 and potentially be one of those league-winning late draft steals.
Jose Berrios - Berrios was an understandable pick heading into the season for anyone speculating on who could be the next ace, ala Blake Snell in 2018. So far, he has started off very strongly. Approaching 25 years of age after working his way up to 192 innings last year, Jose Berrios is in the perfect spot to take the leap to stardom. I don't know if he can be a superstar, but I find it to be certainly possible. I expect a 3.30 ERA with a K per inning and a strong WAR of 4. I'd be glad to have Berrios as my #2.
Lucas Giolito - A few years ago, I attempted to sell a bunch of cards to a local card store and most of those cards were of Lucas Giolito. I was shocked when the owner didn't know who Giolito was (I always wondered if he was just playing hardball). Regardless, the former #1 pitching prospect in baseball has had a rocky start to his career. He had Tommy John surgery, was traded, and has largely underwhelmed during his stints in the majors. I still think there's potential to be had there. I like his imposing height and he, as well, has good velocity. At only age 24, don't be surprised if he puts the past behind him and flirts with a 4 ERA, a huge improvement for him - with the occasional gem. Just don't go overboard here.
Somewhere in the Middle:
Maikel Franco - I've suffered quite a bit in fantasy regarding Franco, including settling for him after missing out on Kris Bryant early in the careers. The bottom line is he hasn't matured as a hitter - which is peculiar because he has 6 walks in 4 games. What I think is Bryce Harper will have a positive influence on him, both as a mentor and by being in the lineup with him, as well. I think he is a good distance from being elite, but will demonstrate more polish in 2019.
Domingo Santana - There's a part of me who believes I'm being stubborn with Domingo Santana. The other half says I'm being rightfully grounded. One thing is for sure - the hype is high right now. I continue to look back at his 2017 season in which he went 30-15 with a 127 WRC+ and it all seemed to come together. The potential is certainly there, especially at a still-young age of 26, to be a very good player. His glaring flaw, however, is his 31.7% career K rate. Chasing, or expecting a repeat of, (or improvement upon) his 2017 season, isn't something I'm investing in...but if he can be 90% of that player, that's still valuable.
Adalberto Mondesi - What a polarizing player. You've probably heard enough hype and analysis so I'll just say that I don't think he's Trea Turner. The range of outcomes is just too vast for me here.Tim Beckham - The current major league leader in WAR, Tim Beckham, has had a sizzling start for the surging Mariners. I'm sure he's one of the most added players in fantasy, as well. Many of those people adding him probably don't even know he was a former #1 overall draft pick. At 29 years old, however, I wouldn't bank on greatness. Generally, I'm expecting the guy we saw in 2017 with a potential of 10% in gains. But, there's something really flashy about this guy - enough so that my interest has been piqued. He seems like a potential rare late bloomer. What else is there to say than, "Guess we'll see"?
Other Quick Thoughts:
Bryce Harper - Harper will hit a ton of home runs in Philadelphia over the next decade.
Mike Clevinger - Clevinger is a lot better than I thought.
Hot Starts I Am Buying:
Christian Yelich - Like some others, I was skeptical Christian Yelich could do what he did in 2018 again. I knew he had improved, but not quite to that extent. So far, he's picked up right where he left off and I finally feel like we're seeing a special player. Going all in.
Cody Bellinger - It's true I collect his baseball cards and that he's one of only two players I really collect at all. Call me biased. It's also true he slammed 39 home runs on his way to winning Rookie of the Year in 2017. After a down-ish sophomore season, Bellinger has sprung out of the gate hot with 5 home runs in 6 games. I'm all in on Bellinger as a top 20 hitter.
Yoan Moncada - While he hasn't quite put up the counting stats of Yelich or Bellinger, he's done well early. I was in on him as a post-hype breakout player and I still am. This guy has all the tools to be the special player we thought he'd be as a rookie. For now, I'll say he can put up a .260 BA with 20 home runs and 35 steals. I especially like the arrival of Eloy Jimenez for his future.
Matt Chapman - I always think of defensive studs as potential future offensive threats. To be an excellent fielder means that a player is athletically gifted. Who's to say you can't use that athleticism to succeed offensively? Of course, this is more Of a thought than a rule of thumb. Chapman did, however, post a 137 WRC+ in 2018 - demonstrating that he could be a great hitter. It is unfortunate for him that he plays in Oakland Colliseum as I tend to expect up to 10% less production, but then again Khris Davis keeps hitting 45 home runs there. I think Matt Chapman is Kris Bryant lite. I still don't know what the ceiling is here, but 30 home runs and 90 RBI with a .275 BA seem realistic. I'm buying, but I'm not all in just yet.
Marco Gonzales - It seemed like Gonzales slipped under the radar a little in drafts this year and I believe it's because he's misunderstood. Just as we draft certain players for home runs or certain players for stolen bases, we should be looking at Marco Gonzales as a quality start guy. Last year, he demonstrated good control and, although the strikeout numbers weren't great, he amassed a nice WAR of 3.5 in only 166 innings. I can only guess his 4.00 ERA scared drafters away, but this is a guy who can quietly end up as your #2 or #3 and potentially be one of those league-winning late draft steals.
Jose Berrios - Berrios was an understandable pick heading into the season for anyone speculating on who could be the next ace, ala Blake Snell in 2018. So far, he has started off very strongly. Approaching 25 years of age after working his way up to 192 innings last year, Jose Berrios is in the perfect spot to take the leap to stardom. I don't know if he can be a superstar, but I find it to be certainly possible. I expect a 3.30 ERA with a K per inning and a strong WAR of 4. I'd be glad to have Berrios as my #2.
Lucas Giolito - A few years ago, I attempted to sell a bunch of cards to a local card store and most of those cards were of Lucas Giolito. I was shocked when the owner didn't know who Giolito was (I always wondered if he was just playing hardball). Regardless, the former #1 pitching prospect in baseball has had a rocky start to his career. He had Tommy John surgery, was traded, and has largely underwhelmed during his stints in the majors. I still think there's potential to be had there. I like his imposing height and he, as well, has good velocity. At only age 24, don't be surprised if he puts the past behind him and flirts with a 4 ERA, a huge improvement for him - with the occasional gem. Just don't go overboard here.
Somewhere in the Middle:
Maikel Franco - I've suffered quite a bit in fantasy regarding Franco, including settling for him after missing out on Kris Bryant early in the careers. The bottom line is he hasn't matured as a hitter - which is peculiar because he has 6 walks in 4 games. What I think is Bryce Harper will have a positive influence on him, both as a mentor and by being in the lineup with him, as well. I think he is a good distance from being elite, but will demonstrate more polish in 2019.
Domingo Santana - There's a part of me who believes I'm being stubborn with Domingo Santana. The other half says I'm being rightfully grounded. One thing is for sure - the hype is high right now. I continue to look back at his 2017 season in which he went 30-15 with a 127 WRC+ and it all seemed to come together. The potential is certainly there, especially at a still-young age of 26, to be a very good player. His glaring flaw, however, is his 31.7% career K rate. Chasing, or expecting a repeat of, (or improvement upon) his 2017 season, isn't something I'm investing in...but if he can be 90% of that player, that's still valuable.
Adalberto Mondesi - What a polarizing player. You've probably heard enough hype and analysis so I'll just say that I don't think he's Trea Turner. The range of outcomes is just too vast for me here.Tim Beckham - The current major league leader in WAR, Tim Beckham, has had a sizzling start for the surging Mariners. I'm sure he's one of the most added players in fantasy, as well. Many of those people adding him probably don't even know he was a former #1 overall draft pick. At 29 years old, however, I wouldn't bank on greatness. Generally, I'm expecting the guy we saw in 2017 with a potential of 10% in gains. But, there's something really flashy about this guy - enough so that my interest has been piqued. He seems like a potential rare late bloomer. What else is there to say than, "Guess we'll see"?
Other Quick Thoughts:
Bryce Harper - Harper will hit a ton of home runs in Philadelphia over the next decade.
Mike Clevinger - Clevinger is a lot better than I thought.
HUGE Thanks to Our Supporters:
Legendary Players:
Brian Jeffcoat
Rookies:
Barry Lawlor
Thank you both so much!
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