Trying To Find The Next Superstar, Pt. 1

Posted By: Steven Claxton

Though Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has yet to reach the major leagues, he is, by many, viewed as roughly one of the top 5 prospects of all-time. Some would go as far as saying he is the best prospect of all-time.

Though he appears to be a can't-miss talent, we've seen busts before. Still, baseball fans and fantasy players are always seeking a player of his perceived caliber.

What we sometimes forget is that there is always someone, someplace, somewhere who is a star-in-the-making. It can be anticipated or it can also be a matter of a player finally just "figuring it out".

It doesn't always make sense, to be honest. When Jose Ramirez was a rookie, I'm sure  many sold his Topps autographed rookie card for a couple bucks. I'm sure 5+ years ago people looked at 5 ft. 6 in. Jose Altuve and thought, "That guy? Nah, never."

Funny thing is - while we've unanimously dubbed Vlad Jr. as a once-in-a-lifetime player, we're already onto calling Wander Franco the next Vlad Jr. See what the issue is? "Future superstars" come and go more often than we sometimes realize. The player who would be this year's Vlad Jr. (if there were no Vlad Jr.), 6 ft. 5 in. Eloy Jimenez, just hit two home runs last night - the second being a 446 ft. blast.

So, I'm here to try to take some stabs (among less talked about players) and find the next superstar. As we've stated, you can't always be correct about prospects, but these are a few guys I am highly interested in.

~Trying to Find The Next Superstar~

Brayan Rocchio - It started with a Twitter video clip of Rocchio batting. I wish that I had saved the clip so I could credit the person. I want to say Fantrax, but I'm not certain. The individual had stated that he could be a special player so, naturally, I became interested and wanted to take a look myself.

As I looked more into Rocchio, the first thing I noticed was that he's not particularly big - 5 ft. 10 in. and only 150 lbs., but I also came to the realization that smaller players are having more success in terms of power when compared to past eras.

Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor - just to name a few - are all 5 ft. 10 in. or less and well under 200 lbs. I'm guessing it's a mix of the fact that pitchers throw harder than ever (meaning just making good contact can result in an XBH), having compact swings because of their frame, bat speed, and even perhaps things like launch angle - and, of course, more rigorous/elaborate training.

With a future Fangraphs overall grade of 50, he's perhaps not a "nobody" as a grade of 50 would indicate a future major leaguer to begin with. He's a switch hitter, which for some, can help a batter have consistent success given that there is no real matchup disadvantage. With a 60/60 speed grade, he projects to have very good speed, as well - and he's already demonstrated it with 22 stolen bases in only 269 plate appearances. Speed is always a great place to start. It can be the difference between an infield out and a single, a single and a double, or a tag at the plate or a run. It's in those instances where the successes of a player's speed can give them some additional confidence and something to build off of.

What I also love about Rocchio's profile is the plate discipline he has demonstrated early on as he projects for about 40 walks and only 75 strikeouts in a full Rookie Ball season. When compared to other stars of his physical stature, those ratios are coincidentally almost identical to theirs.

He has shown a high BABIP, which for many players is a bad sign as it indicates regression, but it is not only a small sample but also may be a sign that he is simply a high BABIP player. Some of the better hitters are no strangers to a consistent .350+ BABIP. As well, he has a healthy line drive rate and he hits neither too many fly balls nor ground balls.

In terms of WRC+ he has put up a strong 140 and 137 in each minor league stop. In a full season in Rookie ball, he projects to a 30 double, 10 triple, 5 home run, 40 steal season with a .330 batting average.

The obvious problem with all of this is he's only played in rookie ball thus far and is only 18 years old. Therefore, he hasn't faced greater competition yet and is likely at least two years away from the majors. This is also the obvious problem with all minor leaguers. Too many times we've been misled by lifetime AAA hitters, AKA what we refer to as quadruple A hitters, respectfully. So, in a sense, it's a matter of perception.

What I think is that Rocchio will put on 10 pounds of muscle as most 18 year olds running up the minors will do. I think those 5 home runs slowly turn into up to 15 and some singles turn into doubles. He should have the bat speed to at least hit for a decent average, with it.

He needs to polish his stolen base success rate as he's been caught stealing 13 times against his 22 stolen bases, but the fact that he's hitting a good amount of triples indicates that he will improve on the base paths. He, too, needs to improve his fielding.

It's always going to come down to how much a player wants to succeed. I strongly believe that desire is what has fueled the likes of a player such as Jose Ramirez. After all, before becoming a 30-30 candidate, "J-Ram" was a 10 home run, 20 steal player who hit for average. Sound familiar?

We're honestly a long way from knowing the truth about Rocchio, but there are a ton of positive early signs. Furthermore, at his current position of second base, it's very intriguing to think of a future infield of Ramirez, Lindor, and Rocchio and what kind of core that could be should Rocchio blossom. There's certainly no positional block therefore a future at second base for the Cleveland Indians is there for the taking for someone, and that someone could be Rocchio.

Nico Hoerner - I was first introduced to Horner by established Fantrax analyst, Joe Pisapia. I had found myself in an amateur prospect draft and unsure of who to draft. Joe appeared to feel strongly Nico was the best of what was available to me at the time, though no reason why was provided. As it had happened with Rocchio, I became incredibly curious and decided to buy in on Nico Hoerner.

Now 21 years old, Hoerner was drafted 24th overall in the 2018 amateur draft - coupled with a prospect grade of 50, he's also not an afterthought of a player. Hoerner started in D1 college baseball and appeared to improve each season in just about every offensive statistical measure. Beginning in 2016 with a slash line of .245/.298./311, he followed up with a 2017 line of .307/.357/.406, and concluded his college career by finishing 2018 with a line of .345/.391/.496. As well, he increased from 1 steal to 2 to 15. (You can find his full college statistics here)

The first three things I liked about Nico Hoerner, statistics aside, were his solid frame of 6 ft. 1 in., 200 lbs., his age (very nearly already 22 years old), and his athletic build with seemingly strong thighs/legs.

While they were likely already great hitters, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rendon are great examples of hitters who were polished coming into the majors directly from college. Hoerner's frame makes me think of Javier Baez or even a less muscular Trevor Story. His age should help him advance more quickly through the minors, as well.

Though he hit only a few home runs in college, his power grade of a respectable 50/50 expresses a player who will grow into his power, at what I'm only guessing Fangraphs would peg him to be a 18-20 home run kind of hitter. It's hard to tell on that front.

After being drafted, the Cubs showed a ton of faith in Hoerner as they allowed him to advance through three minor league levels in that year alone, starting with R ball and jumping up to Single A and followed by A- ball. Along the way, he accrued 9 walks and 4 strikeouts, a fantastic ratio, in 49 at-bats (11 games). This was paired with 2 home runs and 6 stolen bases with a combined batting average of over .300 and hitting .400 in his final stop at A- ball.

Small sample sizes remain the common theme here, but the Cubs' willingness to let him jump up the minors quickly mean that either they saw something in Hoerner or at the very least believed he was ready for a greater challenge.

With 2 home runs and 6 stolen bases in 2018, Hoerner appears to be a potential multi-category contributor. After hitting only a few home runs in college with an enormously larger amount of at-bats, it is worth wondering if Hoerner is growing into his power already as one may have expected. We just don't know to what extent that power could be.

What I think is that I'm not sure Addison Russell is going to stick around for the Cubs as their everyday shortstop even in spite of great defense. He has gotten himself into plenty of trouble off the field and now has a record of being an offensive liability. This is important because Hoerner is listed as a SS, or at least an infielder in general. Between Hoerner and Baez, the Cubs would be able to proceed with someone else at SS outside of Russell.

Although off to a slow start in 2019 in the early goings, Hoerner had began the season in AA and is another step closer to the majors. Should Hoerner adjust quickly, the Cubs could consider a summer call-up at the hands of an injury or in need of a spark. Maybe it's the cool name, but I have a good feeling about Hoerner being a future Cubs' starter and being a 20-20 guy. Keep an eye on Nico.

Some of the more obvious picks I don't need to get into: Royce Lewis, Nick Senzel, Wander Franco, Jo Adell, Mackenzie Gore, Nolan Gorman

That's all I have for you today folks! I'll be back with more players who could be the next superstar in the next few days.

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