Trying to Find The Next Superstar, Pt. 2

Posted By: Steven Claxton


Cavan Biggio - When you are the son of a former major league star, you oftentimes immediately receive some additional recognition. Though it may have helped his draft status being a 5th round pick, there hasn't been much talk regarding Cavan Biggio otherwise. I guess when you're in the same farm system as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette it's especially understandable.

Listed at 6 ft. 2 inches, 200 pounds, Cavan would appear to be more of a physical specimen than his father - yet, based on minors numbers alone, they seem to have somewhat similar outputs as (roughly) 20-20 guys. I say "roughly" because 1993-1998 was certainly Craig Biggio's hey-day and his steals were considerably up (as were his gaudy runs totals). After that, he saw a pretty noticeable regression so I'm averaging it out a bit.

As for Cavan, 2018 ended up being a breakout year as he tasted AA for the first time, where he played the entirety of his season. In comparison to 2017, Cavan doubled his home runs and stolen bases, upped his batting average by 20 points, and nearly slugged .500 while falling one RBI short of 100 - all while facing more difficult competition.

Though Fangraphs does not grade him greatly on the whole, they do consider him to have solid raw power with a grade of 55/55 and it looked like some of that materialized last year. Now in 2019, he has started the year in AAA and has had excellent success so far. He already has 2 home runs and 2 stolen bases and a slash line of .432/.522/.676 at the time of this writing.

The problem is his BABIP in 2019 is a whopping .483. If we mindlessly expect regression to the mean of .300, we could suggest he's still a .250 hitter...which coincidentally is exactly what he was in 2018. As well, he had a strikeout rate of around 25% for both 2017 and 2018. These are the aspects of his game that would hold him back - K% and, what often goes hand-in-hand with it, a lower batting average.

Still, Cavan Biggio has demonstrated a strong ability to amass walks after walking 100 times in 2018 and 74 times the year before. This alone should help him have that extra bit of success as he continues his career. So far in 2019, he has replicated his walk total while also delightfully lowering his K rate. If he can maintain a lower K rate, we could be looking at an improvement in BABIP and batting average and, overall, a budding star.

What I think is that Cavan Biggio has a lot of appealing aspects offensively, but we need to see more. It's too early to deem a 2nd breakout or dramatic increase of skills in 2019, but he's definitely more intriguing than a ton of other prospects.

He needs to polish his stolen base success rate and continue to try to lower his strikeout rate, but his high walk rate and mix of power and speed should give him at least some success. I love that he is advancing through the same system as the sons of other former stars and should join the majors with them in the next year or so. Biggio could be the forgotten piece, perhaps even the catalyst, in what could be a great young core in Toronto.

Luis Rengifo - Admittedly, I've never heard much about Luis Rengifo, however I attempted to add him in a couple of dynasty leagues so there must be at least some semblance of a following. Of course, that could indicate any range of outcomes - as low as the hope that he's even just an average player.

Like Nico Hoerner, Rengifo soared through three levels of the minors all in one season, this being 2018 in which he finished in AAA. Perhaps more impressively, he did so at an even younger age as Rengifo is barely 22 years old as of this writing. Again in AAA in 2019, Rengifo is on the cusp of his first bit of service time in the majors which makes him even more appealing from a fantasy perspective.

If you combine his numbers from 2018, Rengifo finished with a slash line of .299/.399/.452, 109 runs, 30 doubles, 13 triples, 7 home runs, 64 RBI, 41 stolen bases, and a beautiful BB:K ratio of 75:75. These are really impressive numbers that indicate a useful future major leaguer.

I always like to discuss size, as well, and at 5 ft. 10 in., 195 lbs., he has enough size -generally speaking - to potentially see some gains in power. We've talked before about compact frames/swings and Rengifo could fit that mold. Fangraphs likes his speed with a 55/55 grade and thinks he's a respectable hitter with a hit grade of 50/55.

What I think is we could certainly be looking at a future leadoff hitter. He has the makeup of a successful one due to his speed, batting average, and high OBP. It's an excellent sign that he reached AAA at age 21, which is pretty uncommon and left for the more promising hitters. This all, alone, could parlay him into a star, but it's the question of superstardom.

He only really needs to maintain his current paces with adding a 10%-15% jump in one facet whether that be home runs (improving from 7 to, say, 12), stolen bases (improving from 40 to, say, 50), or walks (improving from 75 to, say, 90). Still, this is all a lot to ask and we're getting ahead of ourselves even if that's why we're here. Ultimately, Rengifo looks to be a guy who could be a top 60 hitter by midsummer with the potential to be a superstar. There is very little to dislike with what we've seen from him so far.

A.J. Puk - To an extent, I felt like I was cheating by including Puk because I felt he was probably more hyped than the other players I have mentioned so far. He was, after all, the 6th overall pick in 2016. That said, Puk underwent Tommy John surgery last April and his stock has fallen. Some people are optimists in regard to Tommy John recovery, but some always approach with hesitancy after the fact.

The fact that he was drafted so high means that he will get his chances regardless and maybe even receive more care/help along the way. Largely speaking height means nothing, but at 6 ft. 7 in., it's easy to be an optimist if you want to think about other superstars such as Chris Sale or Randy Johnson or even, more simply, the strong early output of a guy like Tyler Glasnow. I also like the fact that he is 220-230 pounds and has some weight to go with that frame. Being that tall with no weight behind it sometimes worries me whether that's warranted or not. But regarding what's important - from what I've read, he has great velocity as he averages 95 or better on his fastball.

Velocity is always a good first sign. The Greg Madduxes of the world are awesome, but unfortunately harder to come by. Puk also throws left-handed which should help heighten his success further. Now one year removed from surgery, Puk should not be far from game action and has a shot at reaching the majors in 2019 after reaching AA in 2017. Rehab of course comes first so let's talk about his success to date.

If you combine Puk's 2017 stops at A+ and AA, you would have a gaudy strikeout total of 184 Ks in only 125 innings. We obviously have a guy who could be a strikeout artist - an obvious trait of most superstar pitchers. When you can miss bats, you will always have an edge as a pitcher. Puk also was phenomenal at limiting home runs as he allowed a mere 3 combined home runs in 2017.

What I think is Puk needs to maintain his current control and improve upon it in the coming year or so. Though he's sitting at around only 3.5 walks per 9 innings, you would prefer to see him under 3 as most elite pitchers are. It will take time to get back into the swing of things, but he's already days away from turning 24 years old - so, perhaps an improvement in control could come sooner as he's another year wiser. Getting into actual gameplay will likely dictate that the most. Some websites also have Puk listed at closer to 240 pounds than Fangraphs' 220 pounds so, theoretically, I'd just like to see Puk maintain a healthy weight, too.

Puk appears to have all of the tools to succeed to go along with his prospect pedigree. He's played in college so he's used to competition and he's succeeded thus far as evidenced by a FIP no higher than 2.35 at any minor league level. Even better, he plays for Oakland which is a pitcher's park. Assuming good health, Puk is one of the best options, as far as pitchers go, to be an elite option at the position. We could be looking at a MLB #3 starter by 2020 with room to exceed. With all of the Luzardo hype in Oakland, don't forget about Puk.

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