Trying to Find The Next Superstar, Pt. 3

Posted By: Steven Claxton

Ian Happ - Drafted 9th overall in 2015, Happ - like Puk, is certainly not a player who was/is a "nobody". Just two years ago, Happ was likely ahead of the likes of Cody Bellinger and maybe even Aaron Judge on the lists of top prospects. The hype, at one point, seemed almost like it was a guarantee that Happ would be a steady piece in the Cubs' lineup.

Fast forward to present time and we now have two consecutive years in the bigs in which Happ has posted a strikeout rate north of 30% - which basically means (had he played full seasons) he'd have had back-to-back 200+ strikeout seasons to open his career. That's not good. With only 116 plate appearances in AAA prior to his tenure on the major league roster, you have to wonder if the Cubs threw him into the fire too soon.

What's worse is Happ seemed to regress in his 2nd season as a Cub in most facets. Still, Happ did increase his walk rate by nearly 6% between the two seasons - which should not go overlooked. In fact, his walk rate resembled that of superstar, Aaron Judge - another high K-rate guy. We're actually seeing somewhat of a very modest revolution as far as hitters who threaten 200 Ks and 100 walks, yet are still productive. The aforementioned Aaron Judge and the (what I see as) still improving Joey Gallo come to mind. Who's to say Happ can't fit in somewhere among the pack?

Obviously, the Cubs are set at 2nd base, 3rd base, and RF - which leaves LF as a possibility for Happ. Whether the Cubs want to deploy him instead of Schwarber remains to be seen. Defensively, Happ was solid in LF in 2018 after a poor showing in 2017. He would clearly need to uphold that kind of defense to retain a starting position in left field.

At this point, though, I'm just not sure how interested the Cubs are in keeping Happ around. They have to be worried about his strikeouts. They also gave him two (partial) seasons to either prove himself or audition himself for other teams. The Cubs certainly need some pitching and the talks of a Happ trade have always been hanging in the air. Really, you could argue Happ's time as a trade chip are running out.

Not to mention, the Cubs have Nico Hoerner. If Hoerner continues to impress, he will force the Cubs' hand and we may see a constant Maddon-esque lineup rearrangement which would further remove Happ from the starting lineup. While I think the Cubs want Happ to be great and provide another offensive piece despite the team's pitching circumstances, it doesn't seem to be working out.

What I think is Happ has the versatility that would make him all the more appealing as a trade piece for other teams. While he failed to cement himself as a regular in the MLB, he still was not bad. In his rookie year, he actually slugged .514. As well, he flashed the ability to potentially steal 15 bases a year should he become a starter. We've seen Yoan Moncada seemingly take a step forward in 2019 despite his strikeout woes - it's certainly not out of the question Happ could do the same.

He's started poorly again in AAA in 2019, but hopefully the Cubs let him accrue a healthy amount of at-bats to get comfortable and confident. Perhaps something clicks and he replicates his rookie year while maintaining a walk rate closer to his sophomore season. If the Cubs major league offense stays healthy, they may further allow Happ to gain an extra bit of minor league seasoning.

Between the offensive glimpses he's shown, the defensive versatility, and the very real possibility of a trade, the 24 year old has a strong path to playing time somewhere and the tools that could align to something special should he find/make/experience that one adjustment or maturation that occurs when a player figures it out. Unowned in most leagues, Happ is an obvious could-be superstar.

Gavin Lux - Continuing the cheating theme of first round draft picks, up next is Gavin Lux. As far as predicting superstars goes, you'd almost wish Lux was in a different organization. The Dodgers already have Cody Bellinger (who I feel is a superstar) - maybe I'm too quick to buy in - but also promising young stars, Corey Seager and Walker Buehler. It just kind of seems as though, generally, teams only develop so many superstars in a certain period of time. An event in which Bellinger, Seager, Buehler, and Lux all reach their ceilings together and attain superstar status feels like a low probability outcome. But hey, who knows?! In a way, that's what makes it fun. Anything can happen.

As for Lux, he was the 20th overall draft pick three years ago for the Dodgers and stands in at 6 ft. 2 in. with a weight of 190 pounds. He is listed as 2B/SS.

We know SS is Seager's so we'll assume Lux is the potential future everyday 2nd baseman - coincidentally a position the Dodgers have had a hard time adequately filling for awhile now despite the talents of Enrique Hernandez, Max Muncy, and Chris Taylor. In short, the team would love to have a quality set-and-forget 2nd baseman, especially after the Dozier experiment. Lux is still probably a year away, however, and is a mere 21 years old so let's not get too ahead of ourselves.

With a grade of 55 overall on Fangraphs, the group thinks well of him as a prospect. He is also the 66th ranked prospect on MLB.com's top 100. I do think he is on the radar of most people, but I'm just not seeing the hype of a potential superstar. That's why I wanted to list him.

He's performed beautifully in the minors and already, at age 21, is in his 2nd stint of AA. This means a promotion to AAA is not far away. He has typically maintained a K-rate around 17% with a walk rate around 10%, both of which are very encouraging. Including the early returns of 2019, he has a slash line of .324/.396/.495 or better in his last three minor league stints (beginning in 2018). Overall, it actually seemed to click for Lux in 2018 as opposed to his previous minor league stops and, so far, it appears like his floor has increased dramatically going forward.

It seems out of the Dodgers' nature, especially with the current quality depth of the team, to promote Lux as anything other than a September call-up, but he is on a short list of players who appear capable of handling that jump saved for guys like Fernando Tatis Jr.

What I think is, barring injury, Lux wins the starting job out of spring training in 2020. That said, it would only take a combination of: an injury on the ML roster, a modest losing streak, and just a bit of AAA playing time (or the continued destruction of AA pitching) and perhaps Lux gets the call. That seems like a lot to ask, but also a combination that is certainly plausible. He is an obvious bench stash for me, fantasy-wise, if I've the roster space to do so.

Gavin Lux checks all the boxes. He has power with some speed, hits for average, good plate discipline, prospect pedigree, and a clear path to a full-time or mostly full-time position. A quick look at his defense, however, reveals his one current flaw. He needs to really improve in that area of his game - as evidenced by a whopping 59 errors in roughly 1.5 season's worth of games at single A and above.

The Dodgers are also continuing to bounce Lux back and forth between 2nd base and shortstop despite the presence of Corey Seager which makes me question what their ultimate goal or plan is between the two. Based on the troublesome defense, my uneducated guess would be that they just don't know what his best position is yet and that they perhaps question if he can even play 2nd base.

Ultimately, a lineup of Bellinger, Seager, and Lux is something to drool over. Formidable stars, Turner, Pollock, and even Pederson (and the team's lesser solid pieces) make it all the more enticing. Should Lux reach his ceiling, he kind of gives me a Nomar Garciaparra feel. Plus, with a name like Gavin Lux, you're almost expected to succeed as a major leaguer.

Abiatel Avelino - Let's dive deep with a Hail Mary for this last one. Picture this, an alternate universe in which 90% of the Yankees succumb to injury. I know, I know, I must be crazy.

But that actually happened in 2019. That was the organization in which Abiatel Avelino played for. Unfortunately, he now plays for the Giants so he missed the boat on that one. The Giants, however, are offensively insufficient and a strong performance in the minors could open the door for playing time in the majors for Avelino. These details are important because it does present a feeling that he is not held too distantly from playing time in the major leagues on the whole.

While much of Avelino's minor league stops have been underwhelming, he has shown flashes here and there. If there were positive constants we could at least point to it would be his 20-30 SB ability/potential and well-maintained healthy strikeout rate. These are both excellent skills for any player and also serve as great base skill sets of which success in other areas can be built off of.

What we're looking at here is Avelino's 2018 AA stint specifically. It all seemed to come together. In 190 at-bats, he finished with a slash line of .337/.392/.553, 10 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a WRC+ of 162. This parlayed into his first extended taste of AAA, in which he has been in ever since (as well as getting a cup of tea with the Giants in 2018).

Unfortunately, Avelino hasn't repeated his 2018 AA performance in AAA thus far, but the fact that he has seemingly officially been deemed AAA quality and granted his first taste of the majors, maybe there's something there that the organizations are seeing.

What I think is realistically he's probably not going to be much of a major leaguer, but his 2018 AA season is tempting. You always like to see that combination of power and speed. Service time wise, that would have only been the 2nd-ish half of a full AA season at age 23. It would potentially indicate a player who had adjusted at an expected rate. Now with a combined 395 at-bats in AAA, it's not inconceivable that Avelino could yet again adjust and flash some upside again.

AT&T - Oracle Park is an unfavorable landing spot, but it's also a team that seems to get the most out of nothing. Like I said, Avelino is admittedly a long shot, but if he hits any kind of stride in AAA or gets called up and puts together a nice stretch in a limited sample size, maybe I gave you that extra 20% of courage to take a leap of faith and add him to your fantasy team.

Thank you everyone for reading! If you have followed along with this three part series of trying to find the next superstar, please remember a few things: #1 - I wanted to focus on players who were less obvious picks as potential superstars, #2 - I'm not guaranteeing any of these players TO BE superstars. I'm merely pointing out the possibilities, of which I think I've discussed thoroughly.

As well, I initially planned to make this a 3 part series and conclude it as such, however, I am leaving it open-ended and you may continue to see part(s) 4 and so-on at any time throughout the season. I would probably like to conclude by the 2019 draft so that we can start fresh in the off-season, but we'll just see where it goes.

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