My Favorite Buy-Lows, Players Gaining Traction

N.Y. Mets' outfielder whispers to his teammate to acquire Zack Wheeler on his fantasy team. (Photo courtesy and credit of/to Phrake Photography) 

Posted By: Steven Claxton

I remember in middle school or high school, my brother - 7 years my elder - would occasionally give me advice. I'm sure there were a few times when it was something I needed to hear while other times it went in one ear and out the other.

One of his fortune cookie tellings was this: "Don't go after the beautiful girl who is a cheerleader and has it all. Go after the girl with potential...because when you are older, it will all be different". Now, he certainly used less wise words and there may have been a "hot" & "ugly" somewhere in his advice, but the point was understood.

Now, as an adult, I still see his line of thought...not that it was anything groundbreaking in my head. Still, there may have been a girl or two I missed out on - although life had other circumstances getting in the way anyway. It usually seemed like I was the one who was overlooked. And, of course, sometimes when an opportunity has passed, it might not come around at a later time.

This belief really applies to a lot of things in life. Jobs, vehicles, homes.

I can recall a college professor at my local community college detailing his past work experiences and how he had chosen a workplace that was paying him quite a bit, but there was hardly any work space and it was uncomfortable. Long story short, he later wished he had chosen the lesser jobs.

Clearly, there's a lot more to all of that, but baseball, more than others, is a sport in which you can't always trust current production. With more metrics than the sum of the amount of times my brother tried to coerce me to have beer with him in high school, we're consistently reminded that all that glitters isn't always gold - and vice-versa.

In the trading world of fantasy baseball, this is obviously huge because you can sometimes look ahead and take an educated guess at who will fail and who will succeed. The generic terms for this, as most fantasy players know, are "buy-low" and "sell-high". You can "buy-high" and "sell-low", but those instances are less common - and today, we're here to list some of the easier buy-low options out there.

Buy-Lows (While You Can)

Zack Wheeler - Zack Wheeler has always been an intriguing pitcher, somewhat in the same breath of Nathan Eovaldi given that they both throw extremely hard. I'd venture to say Wheeler has always felt a little more promising, however, especially when you consider the fact that he has - not counting the early returns of this year - only posted an ERA over 3.99 once in any stop at any level...and that was in a seemingly lost 2017 (5.21 ERA).

Lo and behold, in 2018 it appeared Wheeler had finally put the pieces (back?) together. He did so by accruing a very strong 4.2 WAR in only 182 1/3 innings - accompanied by nearly a strikeout per inning, less than three walks per nine innings, and a mostly sparkly ERA of 3.31. As well, at the time his fastball and slider were being thrown harder.

He now has an ERA of 4.74.

When factoring in Wheeler's good-but-not-great prior success, his terrible 2017 performance, and his career year arriving at the older age of 28, there are bound to be numerous fantasy owners willing to jump ship on the Mets #3 starter. But why would you want a guy with a 4.74 ERA, you ask?

Following up last year's career highs in velocity, Zack Wheeler (fittingly, that's Zack with a "k") has increased his velocity yet again as he is averaging roughly 97 mph on his fastball and nearly 92 mph on his slider. This is the kind of velocity typically only seen in relievers who throw one inning.

It certainly doesn't end there. Not only has he increased his strikeouts by a little over one per inning, his FIP (3.20) and xFIP (3.62) are almost identical to last year, also. There is a strong indication that Wheeler has, at minimum, a full run of positive regression headed his way.

If there is one issue it is his control as his walks have increased to 3.30 per nine following his high of 2.71 per nine in 2018. A walk rate of such is not a deal-breaker, though, especially when a pitcher throws as hard as Wheeler. If he can keep it at 3.5 or better, there should be no concerns in that department. It helps his cause that he limits homers fairly well - averaging less than one per start for consecutive seasons. It should also be noted that, outside of one disastrous start in which he walked a whopping seven batters, he has walked three batters or less in every other start.

After last night's start, the window is closing. He cruised through six innings with one earned run before allowing two more in the seventh. (6 innings, 1 ER looks a lot better than 7 innings, 3 ER). I would try to trade for Zack Wheeler in any league. Just don't overpay - the key is obtaining him at a perceived lesser value.

Carlos Carrasco - We now have two consecutive seasons of essentially elite production from Carrasco - and perhaps more importantly he has largely remained healthy (back to back years of 192+ innings). So far in 2019, most of the peripherals look the same or at least close to the same.

Despite the 4.30 ERA, he has upped his K/9 for the third consecutive season to a grand 11.35. He's even reduced his walks thus far to less than two per nine innings - an excellent rate.

The problem with Carrasco earlier in the season was that he was allowing too many hits. As May has unfolded, he has polished that aspect, but has seen an increase in home runs that appears to be fueled by inducing fewer ground balls. He's now on pace for roughly 40 home runs allowed.

Even with the new ball, I still think Carrasco is someone you should invest in. He has a strong track record and has already seemed to turn the corner in May. It seems unrealistic that he would approach the extrapolated rate of 40 home runs allowed in 2019. Even if he does, he's allowed 6 of them in May in spite of a 2.55 ERA for the month - indicating he is at least successfully limiting them to being solo home runs.

After back to back seasons of a 3.30ish ERA, 5+ WAR, 10+ strikeouts per nine innings, and a great walk rate, you should feel positive about Carrasco going forward. I am concerned he may not be as good as his previous two seasons, but I'll still gladly take Carrasco at 85%-90%.

Justin Smoak - Admittedly, Justin Smoak is likely a free agent in a ton of leagues and may not even require being traded for - but I would imagine there are plenty of leagues where he is either a stopgap corner infielder or someone's last bench piece.

Track record is again the recurring theme here as Smoak was a respectable hitter in the two seasons before this - putting up WRC+s of 133 in 2017 and 121 in 2018. And based on the fact that his true breakout year came in home run happy 2017, there's enough to believe he should see some power gains again here in the same environment of 2019.

He's walking more than ever, at a whopping clip of 19% of the time (which is nearly Joey Votto status), and he's striking out less than ever. He's even hitting the ball extremely hard with a hard hit rate of 52.3% - good for 7th in the majors.

It feels oversimplified to say that it's been all bad luck, but maybe it is that simple. His .238 BABIP absolutely suggests some poor luck. With a batting average of .214 and a slugging percentage of .372, you have to figure Justin Smoak has a hot streak coming and we could be seeing a barrage of homers soon.

I'm not implying Smoak is a star, but he has been a 30 home run - 90 RBI guy before and now has Guerrero Jr. in the lineup. You could do so much worse on a buy-low flier and he won't cost you much at all.

Corey Seager - Lastly, there is Corey Seager. I won't go into too much detail considering I wrote about him in my last article, but I thought he fit the description of a buy-low.

My main concern about Seager isn't as much about production, but rather health. Once he is fully healthily removed from his prior injur(ies), he should be a steadily fine player. I mentioned in my last article on May 10th that he could potentially gain power as the season continues - since then, he has hit 2 home runs with 8 RBI (although with a low batting average).

Seager, for me, (like Smoak) is all about the value, though. If you can get him for pennies, I would do it in case he gets hot. It's always a good idea to have some potential on your bench if nothing else and he fits that bill.

Players Gaining Traction

Not everyone can be a buy-low or a sell-high. And once a player becomes what he is, his level of consistency is usually something we're all aware of. Now that the majority of fluky hot starts have faded away and we are seeing who has legitimately succeeded or improved, here are some guys who are solidifying their 2019 value/production, most of which are young players who appear to be putting it together.

Rafael Devers - While the spotlight seems to be on Michael Chavis, I feel better about Devers long-term. After a mediocre 2018, Devers looks like a much better hitter. He's taking walks at an improved clip and his strikeout rate is very nice and in line with his minors numbers.

He's still a baby in MLB years (22 years old), but we could be witnessing the birth of a sweet-swinging .300 hitter. Whether there's enough power there to be special is something that is more difficult to predict, but he projects for a cool 18-20 homers and lots of doubles.

Byron Buxton - Not to "toot my own horn", but Byron Buxton was another player I suggested would gain power and, sure enough, he has hit three home runs since that article was published on May 10th.

I still am a little worried about his batting average because, barring a change, he profiles as more of a .255 hitter than a preferable .280+, but his slugging percentage is now hovering around .500 to go along with great speed.

While he doesn't steal anywhere near as frequently as Adalberto Mondesi (and Mondesi has an absurd and a bit unsustainable RBI total), Buxton is closer to being Mondesi than people may realize (barring a change in plate discipline for Mondesi).

The hope for Buxton is that he can bat higher than 9th in the order even if it has worked out alright thus far. Hitting 2nd, for example, ahead of the likes of Nelson Cruz and Eddie Rosario, would seem like a potential big boost in most of his numbers. Heck, even something like 6th would be nice as he would be able to drive those guys in, as well, and then steal a base.

Stephen Strasburg - There's not much to say about Stras. When healthy, he's a really good pitcher. This year, though, he seems to be returning to his Cy Young form of 2017 in which he finished with a spectacular ERA 2.52.

Health will always be a concern with Stephen Strasburg, but he appears to be throwing a little softer (on purpose?) and doing more with less. As well, he appears to be using a sinker and throwing his fastball less often which would seem to be helping him further. He's also pretty much ditched the slider and his curveball has been amazing.

He and Scherzer are atop the metrics boards as close to being the top 2 pitchers in the league at the moment for the Nationals. He still will likely face rebounding competition from superstars like Chris Sale and maybe even the likes of Gerrit Cole and Verlander, but it's interesting that Strasburg is repeating his 2017 success and is throwing less hard. If he can continue to achieve more with less velocity, it may just help him stay healthy.

Luis Castillo - A month ago, there was still enough in his peripherals to suggest Castillo, while very good, wasn't perhaps yet elite. Those were where my concerns lied.

Since then, those numbers, such as FIP and xFIP have appeared to only improve in the meantime. His control is still a bit undesirable as he's flirting with 4 walks per nine innings, but everything else suggests he's getting extremely close to being an ace if he isn't already there.

Simply put, if there's anyone who looks like they're going to be the Blake Snell of 2019, it seems to be Castillo.

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