Potential Power Gainers
Photo Credit: Phrake Photography
Posted By: Steven Claxton
It's no secret now home runs are going to be frequent this season. Whether this continues next year or disappears is something very, very few will know ahead of time - which leaves us hanging by a thread and with a lessened ability to foresee the future.
With the slumps of certain great players the past few seasons, I sometimes question if there is any way that this supposed juiced ball could negatively impact a hitter. 2018 Paul Goldschmidt comes to mind - although the Diamondbacks also were adjusting to the implementation of a humidor. Then there's the curious case of the disappearing Jose "J-Ram" Ramirez, who a select few are pointing to the use of performance-enhancing drugs as a reason for his ups and downs. While he seemed like an unlikely superstar prior to busting out in a huge way, I'm most definitely not ready to go that far.
Harper-haters aside, we also have seen rougher than desired starts from three players whom were considered as locks as top 20 hitters - those being Bryce Harper, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jose Altuve. Altuve, for example, has hit a ton of home runs with 9 already through one-fourth of a season, however his .238 batting average is as uncharacteristic as can be. He would need to hit over 40 home runs for the season while at least tripling his current extrapolated 4 SB total to meet his pre-season expected production if his current batting average is to remain low.
Furthermore, Paul Goldschmidt and Bryce Harper are striking out at accelerated rates. Sure, they're both acclimating themselves to new home teams and circumstances, but these two were both considered mostly polished hitters. Even many of those who disliked Harper would still previously admit he was talented.
Now, I do expect bright futures for all three of these stars, but it is just a thought. It's just that, in simple vague generalities, when something is changed for an apparent good...there is an unforeseen downside. And - with the emergence of power from players we had once written off - ala Hunter Dozier and Christian Walker to name a few...again, it's just an interesting thought even if there is no merit.
Somewhere in between, I do believe we're not necessarily being mindful of the hitters who may gain power as the season unravels. We tend to classify hitters as purely power, purely speed, purely average, or multi-category too soon into the season or career. In this favorable hitting environment, however, we shouldn't forget that it's quite similar (for even current starters) to being a call-up for the Rockies in Coors Field. In short, power is something that some players can still gain this season if they have not shown it yet.
Potential Power Gainers
#1 - Corey Seager
With his first three seasons consisting of slugging percentages of .479, .512, and .561 (in his brief first taste as a rookie), we should expect a .475 slugging percentage as a reasonable floor. That certainly suggests some solid power even if he's not Joey Gallo or Khris Davis.
Unfortunately for Seager, he injured his UCL in 2018 and finished with only 26 games played. He was not off to a particularly good start that year, similar to this year, so it's safe to wonder to what extent his health had effected him prior to injury and how it is effecting him at this stage.
That said, now one year removed from his injury, you'd like to believe he will only continue to grow healthier and stronger from here on out. As well, with the apparent emergence of Cody Bellinger, you would also think that this would remove some of the pressure from Seager in terms of trying to make something happen. Based on his WRC+ (weighted runs created plus) of 127 and 136 each, respectively, in his only two full seasons, Corey Seager should be considered a good hitter. Simply. I've spoken to Dodgers fans and they also think his approach looks great. So far, however, his slash line of .230/.327/.348 clearly leaves much to be desired.
This is an instance in which we should believe in his past successes and draft pedigree as a former 1st round pick, translating into a return to form. His usual walk rate, strikeout rate, and defense have largely carried over without impact, but he is pulling the ball about 10 percent less of the time. You could argue he is still getting his timing down and is late on his swings.
Upon further review, pitchers are only throwing first pitch strikes to him 53.9 percent of the time - a mark that seems pretty low. Perhaps this is throwing his psyche off.
His fly ball rate has also seen a substantial increase as he sits about 15 percent above his normal rate. This could indicate that more power is on its way. In referencing his balls-in-play spray chart as seen on baseball savant.com, he has three warning track fly balls that went for outs and one near - warning track sacrifice fly. Two of his doubles also were nearly home runs themselves.
At a large frame of 6 foot, 4 inches & 220 pounds - and having just turned 25 years old, there is a lot aligning for a vast improvement in power as the year goes on. The combination of prior success, increased fly ball rate, and the changes to the ball only add to that belief.
Unfortunately for Seager, he injured his UCL in 2018 and finished with only 26 games played. He was not off to a particularly good start that year, similar to this year, so it's safe to wonder to what extent his health had effected him prior to injury and how it is effecting him at this stage.
That said, now one year removed from his injury, you'd like to believe he will only continue to grow healthier and stronger from here on out. As well, with the apparent emergence of Cody Bellinger, you would also think that this would remove some of the pressure from Seager in terms of trying to make something happen. Based on his WRC+ (weighted runs created plus) of 127 and 136 each, respectively, in his only two full seasons, Corey Seager should be considered a good hitter. Simply. I've spoken to Dodgers fans and they also think his approach looks great. So far, however, his slash line of .230/.327/.348 clearly leaves much to be desired.
This is an instance in which we should believe in his past successes and draft pedigree as a former 1st round pick, translating into a return to form. His usual walk rate, strikeout rate, and defense have largely carried over without impact, but he is pulling the ball about 10 percent less of the time. You could argue he is still getting his timing down and is late on his swings.
Upon further review, pitchers are only throwing first pitch strikes to him 53.9 percent of the time - a mark that seems pretty low. Perhaps this is throwing his psyche off.
His fly ball rate has also seen a substantial increase as he sits about 15 percent above his normal rate. This could indicate that more power is on its way. In referencing his balls-in-play spray chart as seen on baseball savant.com, he has three warning track fly balls that went for outs and one near - warning track sacrifice fly. Two of his doubles also were nearly home runs themselves.
At a large frame of 6 foot, 4 inches & 220 pounds - and having just turned 25 years old, there is a lot aligning for a vast improvement in power as the year goes on. The combination of prior success, increased fly ball rate, and the changes to the ball only add to that belief.
#2 - Byron Buxton
Quietly, Byron Buxton has an above-average slugging percentage of .462. And yet he only has one home run. We already know he's a speed demon who plays great defense, but the power is something we've only seen in spurts.
Admittedly, I am pro-Buxton, but it would be very difficult for him to finish with his current pace of 5-7 home runs with such a respectable slugging percentage. Of course, it's early, but he's also only batting .255 - therefore the effect on his SLG% is minimal.
He sits nicely in the 87th percentile of hard hit contact rate and in the 92nd percentile of exit velocity - both serving as potential indicators of a bump in home runs going forward. He, as well, has a fly ball rate of a steep percentage of 54.4.
I think sometimes people write off Buxton completely as having little power, but I still see someone who can be a 20 home run hitter in today's environment. It feels like he's been around forever but, like Seager, is still just 25 years old. People forget to what extent his wrist injury in the minors obstructed his development. Would it really be that absurd for someone as athletic as Byron Buxton to finally put it together in the power department?
Admittedly, I am pro-Buxton, but it would be very difficult for him to finish with his current pace of 5-7 home runs with such a respectable slugging percentage. Of course, it's early, but he's also only batting .255 - therefore the effect on his SLG% is minimal.
He sits nicely in the 87th percentile of hard hit contact rate and in the 92nd percentile of exit velocity - both serving as potential indicators of a bump in home runs going forward. He, as well, has a fly ball rate of a steep percentage of 54.4.
I think sometimes people write off Buxton completely as having little power, but I still see someone who can be a 20 home run hitter in today's environment. It feels like he's been around forever but, like Seager, is still just 25 years old. People forget to what extent his wrist injury in the minors obstructed his development. Would it really be that absurd for someone as athletic as Byron Buxton to finally put it together in the power department?
#3 - David Fletcher
If you haven't noticed, David Fletcher is making a name for himself. Spectacularly, he has but only 5 strikeouts in 122 plate appearances. This is an elite skill.
He also makes elite contact as he now stands in with a very healthy batting average of .310. His slugging percentage also is currently .469, therefore he actually has shown some power. It's just that I'd imagine most people don't expect that to remain. After all, he showed little power in the minors.
In 2018, Fletcher did start to show some power in AAA, though, while adding 100 points to his batting average from his AAA stint the year before. It certainly appeared to be that of a case of a player getting comfortable. He now, again, seems to be getting comfortable in the majors and appears to be building off his 2018 rookie year.
For someone with such an elite contact rate and strikeout rate and who could finish with a batting average anywhere between .300 - .335, this is a player who will be putting the ball in play a lot. He may not be particularly big at 5 ft., 10 inches, but it's not so small that he couldn't possibly be a 15-17 home run hitter in 2019. He may project as more of a 7-10 home run hitter, but if Jose Altuve can hit 30 home runs, it doesn't seem out of the question that Fletcher's elite skills could parlay into 15-20 home run pop.
He also makes elite contact as he now stands in with a very healthy batting average of .310. His slugging percentage also is currently .469, therefore he actually has shown some power. It's just that I'd imagine most people don't expect that to remain. After all, he showed little power in the minors.
In 2018, Fletcher did start to show some power in AAA, though, while adding 100 points to his batting average from his AAA stint the year before. It certainly appeared to be that of a case of a player getting comfortable. He now, again, seems to be getting comfortable in the majors and appears to be building off his 2018 rookie year.
For someone with such an elite contact rate and strikeout rate and who could finish with a batting average anywhere between .300 - .335, this is a player who will be putting the ball in play a lot. He may not be particularly big at 5 ft., 10 inches, but it's not so small that he couldn't possibly be a 15-17 home run hitter in 2019. He may project as more of a 7-10 home run hitter, but if Jose Altuve can hit 30 home runs, it doesn't seem out of the question that Fletcher's elite skills could parlay into 15-20 home run pop.
Honorable mention: Jeff McNeil
HUGE Thanks to Our Patreon Supporters and Members:
Veteran Members:
Jenn Lepre
Legendary Members:
Brian Jeffcoat
Jenn Lepre
Legendary Members:
Brian Jeffcoat
Thank you all so much!
TY for quietly mentioning Byron Buxton lol because I have been quietly contemplating why I am sitting others for him and I feel he isn’t getting me anywhere ! Time shall tell :) !!!!
ReplyDelete6 hits in his last 11 at-bats...could be clicking
Delete