Predicting Trades of a Potential Mets Fire-sale

(Photo Courtesy and Credit of Freek Bouwe of Phrake Photography)

Posted By: Steven Claxton

With a record of 33-35, the New York Mets are currently resting 3rd in the NL East division - 6.5 games behind the division-leading Atlanta Braves and nearly as much behind the 2nd place Philadelphia Phillies.

Suffice it to say, the men from Queens haven't been the Kings of New York; a point further driven home by the 41-26 Yankees who've been left to field a decimated team for much of the year - in spite of capturing the top position within the AL East.

It's not as if there isn't significant time to right the ship. We are now still less than even halfway through the season and yet this has not prevented some analysts and even Mets fans themselves clamoring for a rebuild.

It makes sense, too. Noah Syndergaard now carries the label of "injury-prone" in some minds - and though the potential is as clear as Max Scherzer's right eye, he has yet to reach 200 innings in any year of his life. He also has two arbitration years heading his way and will likely see some notable raises in his salary, obviously meaning more expenses for his organization.

Syndergaard as a stand-alone concern isn't the issue. The Mets have two other potential-laden arms in Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler who each throw with similar velocity - and velocity will, of course, always be a concern for a dependable starter's health. Zack Wheeler has already served as an example as such, missing all of both 2015 and 2016 and possessing no 200 inning seasons to his name either. To make matters worse, Wheeler is set to become an unrestricted free agent.

As for Jacob deGrom, he has not been able to replicate last year's spectacular success as I suspected heading into the season. This is not to say he has been anything other than great or near-great, however.

The bigger matter here is that deGrom is still owed a whopping $150 million by the Mets organization through 2025. That is the kind of commitment given by a team that anticipates that they will be able to contend - a scenario opposite of where the team currently stands in 2019.

Furthermore, these various concerns regarding what was expected to be a trio of front-line starters is totally amplified by the $58.5 million owed to Yoenis Cespedes through the 2020 season. Once the centerpiece of the offense, Cespedes may not even play this year - and I suspect he may never be anything close to who he was going forward.

In short, bright spots remain, but the stability of the team is quite a bit removed from most of the more obvious contenders.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Prior to the season, I believed the Mets had the potential to win a World Series and I still believe that due to their pitching staff. Two guys who can throw 98-100 regularly and an ace in deGrom is a 1-2-3 of which can lock down a playoff series should they get there. My first articles also emphasized that, if the team were not to contend, it would be underachieving - and I still see it that way.

Let me be clear, though, as I continue -  I don't see the Mets tearing it down this summer. I was asked to write an article on the possibility of it all and thought it would make for a good challenge. (Sidenote: if there's something you'd like me to write about, I just might do it - no promises).

The reason I don't see an immediate fire-sale is, coupled with their pitching, their young well-hitting core of Michael Conforto and, now, Pete Alonso. Conforto is under team control through 2021 and Alonso has mimicked his 2018 AAA season by bopping 22 home runs as a major league rookie. As well, former 1st rounder, Dominic Smith, has regained some of his polish thus far in 2019 and the pleasant surprise of Jeff McNeil has remained.

The modest signings of dependable hitters such as Todd Frazier and Wilson Ramos also round out the offense quite well and demonstrate that an organization can still fill multiple positional holes in nearly any given year.

And while Edwin Diaz, like deGrom, hasn't reached the same heights he had the year prior, he has been fine and his numbers suggest he will improve as the season continues.

Even Jason Vargas has turned his own season around, albeit he has been subpar overall.

As I have stated in my previous buy-lows article, I believe Zack Wheeler will improve off of his current pace. Again, I still see a strong rotation. Jeff McNeil looks like he could bat .300 with his eyes closed - and those pesky guys are the exact type of player that can fuel a run whether it be a string of regular season games or playoff series. There are multiple 30 home run guys between Conforto and Alonso and the rest of the offense is adequate.

What I see is a team in sore need of production from its prized shortstop, Amed Rosario - who, in one-thousand major league plate appearances, has yet to provide much more than replacement level offense. If there is anything of note in his offensive game this season, it's that he is still on pace for a career high in home runs...then again, so is everyone! He is also swinging less at pitches outside of the zone.

As the team nears two season's worth of at-bats from Rosario, they can only hope it finally clicks as it might possibly for a general 3rd year player following his sophomore slump, ala Cody Bellinger. Don't kill me for mentioning Cody Bellinger in the same sentence as Amed Rosario.

That said, three out of four of the Mets top prospects are shortstops...so, you might think someone has to pan out - and maybe they will.

Otherwise, I don't see a whole lot to be excited about down on the farm and that is all the more reason for one to believe that the team just may in fact elect to rebuild. And without further ado, I'll try to examine some potential trades with the caveat that I have no insider information, am unfortunately unable to see the future - most notably in trades and signings, and possess little experience in trade speculations regarding who or what would be moved in any package for anyone. Did you laugh at that sentence - because I did.

Potential Blockbusters of a Mets Rebuild!

# 1 - Noah Syndergaard to the Boston Red Sox

Of the players I could see being traded, I view Syndergaard as perhaps the likeliest. With Wheeler becoming a free agent, I just don't see a returning package that is worth the while for the Mets and it is difficult to move a contract like that of deGrom's.

My thoughts immediately turn to Michael Chavis in this deal. I haven't been incredibly impressed with Chavis and I'm not sure I buy into him as a vital piece of the offense going forward. After a hot start, he has experienced a significant downward slide. Though his strikeouts were kept in check in the minors, his rates still were just a bit higher than you'd like to see - and now, not only has it caught up to him, but he has simply been exposed at this point with a 33.2 K%.

His production has declined each month and Chavis has now struck out in 22 of his last 44 at-bats. I'm inclined to think a demotion is in the near future and Boston has enough depth to cover 2nd base - while, of course, Devers has established himself at 3rd (Chavis' other position). Steve Pearce is also nearing a return, meaning that Chavis would no longer need to fill the hole at 1st base in the absence of Mitch Moreland.

If the Sox demote Chavis soon, his accomplishments as a rookie will still seem positive month(s) from now to a team like the Mets especially. This is under the belief that Chavis would perform as well as he was in AAA prior.

With Todd Frazier set to become a free agent, Chavis or McNeil could move to third and the other player would fill the remaining position. That seems like a pretty good base for the team.

It's going to take some additional prospects/piece, though, I imagine. With Sale, Price, and Syndergaard as the team's rotation mainstays, I would think the team would look to include some pitching prospect(s) - which would also be of interest to the Mets.

From my perspective, as well, it has to be tough for the Mets to be overly satisfied with Juan Lagares in center field given his mediocre offense - even if he is a good fielder. This makes me think a toolsy guy like Jarren Duran, who has played 50 games in center this year with no errors (and has shown much more offensive potential than Lagares probably ever has) could be in play here.

In sum, a team like Boston, who has given huge contracts to both David Price and Chris Sale, surely wants to jump back into being a contender in the AL East. This is a move that might give them an edge from their perspective. They haven't received much out of Porcello and the oft-injured, newly signed Nathan Eovaldi either.

Final Deal...
BOS receives: Noah Syndergaard
NYM receives: Michael Chavis, Tanner Houck, Jarren Duran, + multiple low level players

# 2 - Jacob deGrom to the New York Yankees

It's really no secret the Yankees are a wealthy team. It's a trade that seems plausible based on that aspect alone. First and foremost, I would bet the Yankees would be paying for a nice chunk of deGrom's remaining salary.

Additionally, the Yankees' rotation is somewhat of a mess. CC Sabathia has not been good, Domingo German has seen a modest decline and also just went on the IL, and Happ was mediocre until recently. James Paxton certainly is not a model of perfect health either.

A guy like deGrom, even at his worst, is one of the better, more dependable pitchers. The Yankees have somehow held on with their numerous woes thus far - an acquisition as such would be huge for the team as they continue to try to prepare for a deep playoff run. It really does just make a ton of sense for both organizations.

If the Yankees weren't expected to eat so much of deGrom's salary, I would think that a guy like Deivi Garcia would be the prized prospect of the package. The Yankees are, however, in the driver's seat to an extent due to the financial component of a potential deal.

At this point, it's obvious there's nowhere to play long-term for Clint Frazier and the Yankees hate Miguel Andujar...or at least his defense. Both of these guys would seem likely to be included in a package.

Andujar could perhaps take over at 3rd for Todd Frazier in the future and Clint Frazier could play left field. Alternatively, if the Mets prefer to keep Dominic Smith in the lineup, he could move to left field, Conforto could move to center field, and Clint Frazier would play right field. Ultimately, this leaves the Mets with a pretty bad defense, but could otherwise bring a bit of an offensive culture to the team.

Then again, Robinson Cano is still around and is also owed a ton of money. The blockbuster would at least give the Mets several different directions to move forward with and would possibly parlay into additional transactions. Their GM has not been shy thus far about making said types of moves.

If the Mets did trade deGrom, I could see a partial rebuild and not a full rebuild. This is of note because it could dictate the type of players they may be interested in, i.e. prospects vs. players who are closer to being major league ready. The main reason I state it this way is because of Jonathan Loaisiga. In the same breath, I'm not sure the Mets would want both an injured Andujar and an injured Loaisiga.

Final Deal...
NYY receives: Jacob deGrom
NYM receives: salary relief, Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar, Albert Abreu/Clarke Schmidt (maybe even both...if so, I might expect the Yankees to get a 2nd piece in return), and multiple low level minor leaguers

# 3 - Three-team-trade

Another possibility I could see is a three team trade. The Cleveland Indians have had rumors regarding potential trades of their starting pitchers for awhile now. Corey Kluber comes to mind for me here. Would it be crazy? Sure. But any potential blockbuster this season is going to be crazy. Still, I'll admit this one is a bit out there.

I think the Yankees could acquire both Kluber and Syndergaard. It would be somewhat of a middle ground as far as having to shell out roughly the same sum of money for one player, deGrom. I suppose Clint Frazier could return to Cleveland or Dominic Smith could head that way.

This is a tough trade to peg, but perhaps the Indians go wild and get rid of Jose Ramirez - sending him to the Mets.

Final Deal...
NYY receives: Corey Kluber and Noah Syndergaard
NYM receives: Jose Ramirez, Albert Abreu, Jonathan Loaisiga
CLE receives: Clint Frazier, Dominic Smith, Miguel Andujar, Clarke Schmidt, Anthony Kay, and 3+ lower level minor leaguers

# 4 - Zack Wheeler to the Minnesota Twins

This trade could be as simple as a rental or it could result in a contract after this season, as well. Wheeler's potential is evident as he may be the hardest throwing starting pitcher in the league. The Twins have some kind of special chemistry right now and it wouldn't hurt to try to bolster that rotation.

This past off-season, the Twins made a slew of low-key moves that have helped transform the team altogether - signing guys like Nelson Cruz, Schoop, and CJ Cron. A trade for Wheeler would mimic those kinds of moves as it would cost far less than a trade for Syndergaard or deGrom.

I'm not sure how long Odorizzi can keep this up, so, outside of Berrios, the rotation is fine but could use another quality arm. I think Wheeler could potentially be that arm.

Final Deal...
MIN receives: Zack Wheeler and Seth Lugo
NYM receives: Lewis Thorpe, Stephen Gonsalves, and 2 low level minor leaguers

Ultimately, there are several possibilities regarding the trades of the Mets' big 3. I think the Red Sox, Yankees, and Twins make the most sense for those trades. I would like to think the Rays are in the mix, but they are usually not able or willing to spend their money. They absolutely have prospects to get a deal done, though.

Brewers could really use an ace - even with the emergence of Brandon Woodruff. They just don't have much to offer unless they are willing to give up Keston Hiura. That would be a big loss on offense for the organization, but they already seem to be able to succeed offensively so maybe they would make a leap to obtain an arm such as Noah Syndergaard. Then again, not sure the Mets want a second baseman so maybe it would be a three team trade.

Whatever the case, these things are really difficult to predict until there have been some whispers in the week or two leading up to the trade deadline. Given the abolition of waiver trades, teams may be more willing/pressed to make a blockbuster. I do think there will be some significant trade in the league, but I'm not totally sold it will involve the Mets at this point. It still seems to me that the Braves have overachieved pitching-wise thus far (at least for 2019). I think there could be some hiccups in that regard, meaning that the Mets may be able to gain some ground in the division. While the Nationals have a good team, they have a tendency to underachieve. The Phillies are not perfect either.

I don't see the Mets in dire enough straights just yet for them to abandon everything they've worked for. They are definitely on the borderline here, though. This next month will be critical and it should be interesting to see what happens at the trade deadline.

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