Trying to Find the Next Superstar, Pt. 4
(Photo Permission of and Credit to Freek Bouwe of Phrake Photography)
Posted By: Steven Claxton
With the apparent establishment of Pete Alonso and the flamboyant talent of Fernando Tatis Jr., it would appear our beloved sport of baseball has two potential future superstars (among others). To many fans and organizational minds alike, both players may seem to be superstars already, but Tatis Jr.'s .427 BABIP and the fact that Alonso has only played one half of a season say otherwise. Still, they're both clearly on the cusp and obviously possess intriguing yet dissimilar skill sets.
In the AL, young Vlad Jr. is still earning his stripes, per say, and the man of whom is consistently mentioned in the same breath, Eloy Jimenez, has had his inconsistencies. And again, we are sidelined with eagerness for more even in spite of the polluted, homer-friendly ball.
Two months ago, The Catch ran a three part series of articles in which we attempted to find the next superstar(s). Our intent was to attempt to dive deeper than the surface and find players whom were of lesser fame than some of the more obvious names like Wander Franco, Brendan McKay, Joe Adell, Luis Robert, and Keston Hiura (only to name a few...).
We previously mentioned Cavan Biggio, now in the majors, who has continued to flash his intriguing skills (in spurts) following his promotion. Luis Rengifo, as well, has been okay. Reports on A.J. Puk are that he is rehabbing well and should see time in the majors in the coming months.
That's not to say we were correct regarding our claims that these players, or others mentioned, are or will be future superstars, but there is still hope each will be at least bove average players. And to reiterate the idea of our series, we aren't here to knight the next superstar (unless adamantly stated otherwise) - we're just here to examine some players and suggest guys who could take that leap soon or eventually.
Furthermore, the 2019 MLB draft has passed in the time since and more stats have piled up across the minor leagues for current players. While we won't yet try to dissect those whom were drafted this year, we thought it was a good time to again look at who has been playing in the MLB affiliates over the course of the previous two months and, thus, will try to find the next superstar.
Trying to Find the Next Superstar...Part 4
Deivi Garcia - I am pretty sure the hype on Garcia is growing considerably. It's one thing to be a Yankees prospect, and it's another to be a successful Yankees prospect. I felt as though I was cheating by including Deivi Garcia in this series, however he's still not listed as a top 100 prospect on mlb.com (I know there are other ranking sites).
Just take a look at his K/9 rate on the right-hand side.
(Cue the Ed Bassmaster YouTube video, "Would You Just Look At It?!)
Of course, I am hiding Garcia's walk rate, but I wanted us to start off strong here, folks.
Signed in 2015 as a teenager, Garcia has blossomed. He is now 20 years old in AA and probably less than a year away from making it to the major leagues. Despite standing in at only 5 ft. 9 inches, 160 pounds, Fangraphs states his fastball as one that can reach the mid-nineties. (Fangraphs also lists his curveball as "excellent").
His strikeout rates already suggested he had good or great velocity, but this confirms such. It appears his curveball is a weapon and probably his out pitch.
What's more is that, prior to 2018, Garcia appeared to be more of a fly ball pitcher - however, from that point forward, his results have shown a pretty even ground-ball to fly-ball ratio. Though some pitchers are simply fly-ball pitchers, and can thrive as such, it's generally a good thing when a pitcher can induce ground-balls at a healthy rate. His development in this part of his game suggests maturation as a pitcher and a harnessing of skills.
Having increased his innings each year as a minor leaguer, Deivi Garcia is set to top 100 innings for the first time following last year's career high of 74 innings. A guess as to what his innings cap is this year would reasonably seem to be up to 125 - followed by maybe 160 in 2020. 150-160 innings as a rookie would be nice, although I'd guess 35% are accrued in AAA.
It's not often I am this excited about a prospect. Hitters can be overvalued due to the PCL and sometimes you just don't know what you're getting with a prospect. Garcia, on the other hand, continues to get better - recently striking out 15 batters in 6 innings with 1 hit and following up that performance with a 5 inning no-hitter.
Had he been older, like Brendan McKay, there would be reason to believe he could taste the majors this season. He still can, but it seems unlikely. The Yankees would need their rotation to suffer a historic collapse for that to occur.
Just take a look at his K/9 rate on the right-hand side.
(Cue the Ed Bassmaster YouTube video, "Would You Just Look At It?!)
Of course, I am hiding Garcia's walk rate, but I wanted us to start off strong here, folks.
Signed in 2015 as a teenager, Garcia has blossomed. He is now 20 years old in AA and probably less than a year away from making it to the major leagues. Despite standing in at only 5 ft. 9 inches, 160 pounds, Fangraphs states his fastball as one that can reach the mid-nineties. (Fangraphs also lists his curveball as "excellent").
His strikeout rates already suggested he had good or great velocity, but this confirms such. It appears his curveball is a weapon and probably his out pitch.
What's more is that, prior to 2018, Garcia appeared to be more of a fly ball pitcher - however, from that point forward, his results have shown a pretty even ground-ball to fly-ball ratio. Though some pitchers are simply fly-ball pitchers, and can thrive as such, it's generally a good thing when a pitcher can induce ground-balls at a healthy rate. His development in this part of his game suggests maturation as a pitcher and a harnessing of skills.
Having increased his innings each year as a minor leaguer, Deivi Garcia is set to top 100 innings for the first time following last year's career high of 74 innings. A guess as to what his innings cap is this year would reasonably seem to be up to 125 - followed by maybe 160 in 2020. 150-160 innings as a rookie would be nice, although I'd guess 35% are accrued in AAA.
It's not often I am this excited about a prospect. Hitters can be overvalued due to the PCL and sometimes you just don't know what you're getting with a prospect. Garcia, on the other hand, continues to get better - recently striking out 15 batters in 6 innings with 1 hit and following up that performance with a 5 inning no-hitter.
Had he been older, like Brendan McKay, there would be reason to believe he could taste the majors this season. He still can, but it seems unlikely. The Yankees would need their rotation to suffer a historic collapse for that to occur.
What I think is Deivi Garcia has one of the best shots at being a pitching phenom. Due to his stature and reported arsenal, it's easy to dream of a 2020 Pedro Martinez - but let's be modest here considering Pedro was perhaps the best to ever do it.
Maybe, in part, this is why the Yankees haven't made a move for someone like deGrom...or why they elected not to sign Keuchel - belief in their minor league arms (Albert Abreu and Clarke Schmidt included). Garcia should be invested in heavily, I believe, and he pitches for one of the most secure franchises that would seem to enable him to succeed as a pro.
His peripherals suggest he is an elite minor league pitcher and will continue to be one. What he needs to do is pan out his control issues. Unless he's going to be another Robbie Ray, he needs to shave a full walk off of his current 4.21 BB/9 in AA this season to be consistently dominant in the major leagues. As long as he can adjust to the increase in innings and remain healthy, the future is very bright for Deivi Garcia.
Dylan Carlson - Drafted 33rd overall as a compensatory pick in the 2016 Amateur Draft, Dylan Carlson still basically emphasizes the position he was drafted in. To speak generically, being drafted that late in the 1st round means you aren't a slam-dunk pick, but have some interesting tools. I probably didn't need to spell that out for you...but I did anyway. so, there's that.
Now 20 years old, Carlson has advanced respectfully well through the minors. It's always a risky bet to draft a high school prospect and perhaps that factored into him being drafted later in the first round.
Though he throws left-handed, he is a switch hitter - which potentially gives him an edge not only in-game, but in terms of being called up to the majors. For instance, if he were simply left-handed, a team might think, "well, he's probably going to struggle versus left-handed pitching". It's a small stretch...but it's worth mentioning.
Between Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, and Nolan Gorman, the St. Louis Cardinals have a quiet trio of solid to great prospects. Dexter Fowler is a free agent following 2021, which is probably roughly in line with when Carlson will get his chance. Plus, they hate Jose Martinez' defense.
He has played center field this year and played it well enough so far - 0 errors...but, Bader has played good defense as a center fielder, as well, in the major leagues. Something will probably give, whether that be that Bader continues to hit poorly or they elect to transition Carlson to right field - as we so often see when teams try to get a prospect bat into the major league lineup.
The numbers...Carlson struggled to maintain a .250 batting average prior to 2019. He did have a BABIP under .300 in both minor leagues stops in 2018 so maybe that explains some of it, but still. Surprisingly, he still finished with respectable WRC+ totals of 115, 101, 126, 112 (and now 129) in each stint. He has also maintained an above average walk rate and noticeably improved his strikeout rate since the end of 2017. A hitter who can post a double digit walk percentage and a sub-20 strikeout percentage are usually indicative of success.
What's more exciting is that he now has his batting average to a career-high .280 and has seen a .067 increase in slugging from his previous best - now sitting at .493, just under .500. He is demonstrating both moderate speed and power, as well.
Should we extrapolate his numbers to a full season, we would have this: .280 BA, 21 home runs, 90 RBI, 32 doubles, 12 triples, 70 walks, and 122 strikeouts. Those are pretty solid, category-filling numbers. At 6 ft., 2 inches and 205 pounds, he projects to potentially maintain his speed and power and possibly even see some gains in home runs. He could be a 20-20 guy, but it's too early to tell.
What I think is there is a well-roundedness to Carlson's offensive, and what looks like defensive, game. Again, the Cardinals quietly have a few hitting prospects that could form a bit of their own young core - adding to the likes of Goldschmidt and maybe Ozuna (FA this offseason). Listed as the Cardinals 3rd best prospect per Fangraphs, he seems like a player who could provide impact. He has progressed nicely thus far and seems like a safely successful player, but the next season or so will tell us if he can take the next step.
Travis Blankenhorn - Travis Blankenhorn isn't very well known outside of Minnesota I presume. Being drafted in the 3rd round, though, is still fairly respectable as opposed to being something like a 20th round pick (no offense, J.D. Martinez).
Listed as 2B/3B, there's already some flexibility for him to make the major league roster in the future. Miguel Sano's off the field troubles and strikeout rate make that even more of a possibility. Schoop is not a long-term fill I assume, but they do still have Jorge Polanco and their shortstop of the future, Royce Lewis. I think there is room in that regard at some point, assuming he performs well.
And perform well he has in 2019. In one third of a season, Blankenhorn has hit 13 home runs with 34 RBI during his time in AA for the Minnesota Twins. He is batting .300 with a 150 WRC+.
The downside to this is his .351 BABIP (although he has had a bit of a high BABIP as a minor leaguer, so regression may not be as steep). He also does not walk very much at all and has sat around a 25% K rate both this year and during his minor league career as a whole.
While a 25% K rate is a far cry from that of, say, 30%, it's still a little high - especially with his current walk rate of 4.7% thus far in AA. I do think he could potentially push that walk rate up to 8-9%, though, which would be just fine and would even it out.
What I notice about Blankenhorn is his thick frame. He is 6 ft., 2 inches and weighes in at almost 230 pounds. He seems to have a strong build and, in some pictures, has thick upper thighs/butt, which tends to be a powerful build for a hitter. I would guess he also has some athleticism despite his slightly thicker than average size due to his ability to play second and the fact that he has chipped in what amounts to 10 steals a year (if you were to combine all of his minor league games) - including 5 already this season at AA (and has not been caught stealing vs. those 5 stolen bases).
What I think is there is a good opportunity positional-wise for Blankenhorn to factor into the Twins' plans. He has a good build for power and has demonstrated that power in the upper level of AA. He has had good to great WRC+ totals throughout his stops, too. He probably needs to work on his plate discipline, though, and might be a guy who needs two tastes of AAA before being successful there. This might put him on track for a late 2020 debut.
His slightly higher than average BABIP suggest he hits the ball hard, but I am not completely sure. It would definitely match the profile. He also fits well with the major's new offensive environment. Though he hasn't wildly succeeded in any single facet, there are some hints in his numbers that he is a name to keep in your back pocket and keep an eye on in the event his success continues.
Maybe, in part, this is why the Yankees haven't made a move for someone like deGrom...or why they elected not to sign Keuchel - belief in their minor league arms (Albert Abreu and Clarke Schmidt included). Garcia should be invested in heavily, I believe, and he pitches for one of the most secure franchises that would seem to enable him to succeed as a pro.
His peripherals suggest he is an elite minor league pitcher and will continue to be one. What he needs to do is pan out his control issues. Unless he's going to be another Robbie Ray, he needs to shave a full walk off of his current 4.21 BB/9 in AA this season to be consistently dominant in the major leagues. As long as he can adjust to the increase in innings and remain healthy, the future is very bright for Deivi Garcia.
Dylan Carlson - Drafted 33rd overall as a compensatory pick in the 2016 Amateur Draft, Dylan Carlson still basically emphasizes the position he was drafted in. To speak generically, being drafted that late in the 1st round means you aren't a slam-dunk pick, but have some interesting tools. I probably didn't need to spell that out for you...but I did anyway. so, there's that.
Now 20 years old, Carlson has advanced respectfully well through the minors. It's always a risky bet to draft a high school prospect and perhaps that factored into him being drafted later in the first round.
Though he throws left-handed, he is a switch hitter - which potentially gives him an edge not only in-game, but in terms of being called up to the majors. For instance, if he were simply left-handed, a team might think, "well, he's probably going to struggle versus left-handed pitching". It's a small stretch...but it's worth mentioning.
Between Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, and Nolan Gorman, the St. Louis Cardinals have a quiet trio of solid to great prospects. Dexter Fowler is a free agent following 2021, which is probably roughly in line with when Carlson will get his chance. Plus, they hate Jose Martinez' defense.
He has played center field this year and played it well enough so far - 0 errors...but, Bader has played good defense as a center fielder, as well, in the major leagues. Something will probably give, whether that be that Bader continues to hit poorly or they elect to transition Carlson to right field - as we so often see when teams try to get a prospect bat into the major league lineup.
The numbers...Carlson struggled to maintain a .250 batting average prior to 2019. He did have a BABIP under .300 in both minor leagues stops in 2018 so maybe that explains some of it, but still. Surprisingly, he still finished with respectable WRC+ totals of 115, 101, 126, 112 (and now 129) in each stint. He has also maintained an above average walk rate and noticeably improved his strikeout rate since the end of 2017. A hitter who can post a double digit walk percentage and a sub-20 strikeout percentage are usually indicative of success.
What's more exciting is that he now has his batting average to a career-high .280 and has seen a .067 increase in slugging from his previous best - now sitting at .493, just under .500. He is demonstrating both moderate speed and power, as well.
Should we extrapolate his numbers to a full season, we would have this: .280 BA, 21 home runs, 90 RBI, 32 doubles, 12 triples, 70 walks, and 122 strikeouts. Those are pretty solid, category-filling numbers. At 6 ft., 2 inches and 205 pounds, he projects to potentially maintain his speed and power and possibly even see some gains in home runs. He could be a 20-20 guy, but it's too early to tell.
What I think is there is a well-roundedness to Carlson's offensive, and what looks like defensive, game. Again, the Cardinals quietly have a few hitting prospects that could form a bit of their own young core - adding to the likes of Goldschmidt and maybe Ozuna (FA this offseason). Listed as the Cardinals 3rd best prospect per Fangraphs, he seems like a player who could provide impact. He has progressed nicely thus far and seems like a safely successful player, but the next season or so will tell us if he can take the next step.
Travis Blankenhorn - Travis Blankenhorn isn't very well known outside of Minnesota I presume. Being drafted in the 3rd round, though, is still fairly respectable as opposed to being something like a 20th round pick (no offense, J.D. Martinez).
Listed as 2B/3B, there's already some flexibility for him to make the major league roster in the future. Miguel Sano's off the field troubles and strikeout rate make that even more of a possibility. Schoop is not a long-term fill I assume, but they do still have Jorge Polanco and their shortstop of the future, Royce Lewis. I think there is room in that regard at some point, assuming he performs well.
And perform well he has in 2019. In one third of a season, Blankenhorn has hit 13 home runs with 34 RBI during his time in AA for the Minnesota Twins. He is batting .300 with a 150 WRC+.
The downside to this is his .351 BABIP (although he has had a bit of a high BABIP as a minor leaguer, so regression may not be as steep). He also does not walk very much at all and has sat around a 25% K rate both this year and during his minor league career as a whole.
While a 25% K rate is a far cry from that of, say, 30%, it's still a little high - especially with his current walk rate of 4.7% thus far in AA. I do think he could potentially push that walk rate up to 8-9%, though, which would be just fine and would even it out.
What I notice about Blankenhorn is his thick frame. He is 6 ft., 2 inches and weighes in at almost 230 pounds. He seems to have a strong build and, in some pictures, has thick upper thighs/butt, which tends to be a powerful build for a hitter. I would guess he also has some athleticism despite his slightly thicker than average size due to his ability to play second and the fact that he has chipped in what amounts to 10 steals a year (if you were to combine all of his minor league games) - including 5 already this season at AA (and has not been caught stealing vs. those 5 stolen bases).
What I think is there is a good opportunity positional-wise for Blankenhorn to factor into the Twins' plans. He has a good build for power and has demonstrated that power in the upper level of AA. He has had good to great WRC+ totals throughout his stops, too. He probably needs to work on his plate discipline, though, and might be a guy who needs two tastes of AAA before being successful there. This might put him on track for a late 2020 debut.
His slightly higher than average BABIP suggest he hits the ball hard, but I am not completely sure. It would definitely match the profile. He also fits well with the major's new offensive environment. Though he hasn't wildly succeeded in any single facet, there are some hints in his numbers that he is a name to keep in your back pocket and keep an eye on in the event his success continues.
NOTE: This article was written during the day of 6/25 - therefore, the stats referenced within may be 97% up-to-date rather than 100%.
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