Benefiting From (Reverse) Ageism In Fantasy Leagues / 4 Bold Predictions

(Photo Permission of and Credit to Freek Bouw of Phrake Photography)

Posted By: Steven Claxton

As a kid, I'll admit there were a few times I snooped under the Christmas tree to try to guess what it was I would be receiving for a present(s) that year. I'd guess it was when I was wanting or expecting something in particular.

You would think I would have learned. After all, my father duped me into believing I was getting an N64 in the December of 1996, boxing up a Sega within an N64 box - only for me to watch my older brother un-box the real N64 shortly after.

It sounds cruel...and it kind of was. I've never been the gamer my brother was, but when someone makes you believe you're getting something you weren't asking for or expecting in the first place, it can be damning.

We all often want it, though; that "shiny new toy" - sure to never let us down. And, in an evolving world, everything seems to have more gadgets, more buttons, more bells and whistles. You might be drooling just reading this.

Calm down. It's just an article.

Not everything has to be new, per se. Despite what Rob Manfred thinks, everything doesn't have to change.

But let's face it, the game of baseball has seemed to change this year. It's not really even just the ball being juiced, but the supposed aftermath of it - that being Ketel Marte, Jorge Soler, and Max Kepler being in the top 25 in home runs (as an arbitrary example). Just the fact that home runs are being hit at a well-documented rate across the league.

It's easy now. It's easy to think Ketel Marte is an elite player and that Cody Bellinger is a superstar - and that both are here to stay...for the rest of this year, for next year, and perhaps most of their careers.

Maybe that does happen, but it's still only been just one half of a season. Players have collapsed before, and so have teams - to return, or to not return, again. 

While regression doesn't have to be based on enlightening metrics and it doesn't need to occur within an allotted time-frame, it's important not to fall in love with young players all the time. Furthermore, it's important not to either discard players as being too old or to find them less favorable because they are less flashy, or less productive, at the moment.

It was only a month ago in which the baseball community, mostly collectively, was concerned about Manny Machado, after all. Then, June came along and he batted .314 with eleven home runs. It happens that quickly.

In short, still, after all this time, try to believe in the older players - the veterans who have demonstrated that they can perform at a high level for more than one year...or one half of a season.

I'm not saying go out and invest in Albert Pujols, Curtis Granderson, and Fernando Rodney - a few of the eldest players in the majors - but don't get carried away with your shiny new toys.

In part, this is why I think Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be either very good or great next year. The fact that he hasn't hit the ground running in this environment almost feels like a good thing in some weird way. Not that Vlad Jr. is even remotely a veteran of the MLB.

If Zach Greinke can go out and toss 88 mph fastballs and have an ERA under three, why can't Paul Goldschmidt - approximately 4 years younger - have a huge second half? 

Bryce Harper might only be going on 27 years of age, but he does have over six years of service time and was one of the most highly touted prospects of all time. Why can't he carry the Phillies from here on out - especially with Machado turning his season around in the blink of an eye?

I might be in the minority, but I do tend to believe Bryce Harper has nagging injuries that get the best of him at times. I'm sure it doesn't explain everything, but moving to a new franchise in which you know you'll be with immediately for thirteen years probably doesn't help either. 

I'm just saying, don't be afraid to trust your stars a bit. Just be smart about it.

A (polarizing) guy like Jose Ramirez is batting .300 with 3 home runs already in 7 July games.

Scooter Gennett, for instance, seems really overlooked at this point. He doesn't have the track record of a Paul Goldschmidt, but he feels as though he has one of the better floors out there.

Aaron Hicks, Jose Altuve. (Granted, I'll always be wary of an earlier decline for a guy with the stature of Jose Altuve.) But the list goes on.

And so, I'll leave you with a few 2nd half "bold predictions". Not your typical super, incredible, gratifying bold predictions, but ones that would tend to keep a fan in a potential reality check and make us think again.

4 Bold Predictions

#1) Carlos Correa outperforms Fernando Tatis Jr. - No, it's not bold, and that's what I'm trying to say! And yes, I know Correa is still rather young, but he's been around and has won a World Series already. Hell, I would still probably even take Correa over FTJ for their careers.

#2) Bryce Harper has a better second half than Hunter Renfroe and Max Kepler - Depending on whether you are pro-Harper or not will immediately determine your thoughts on this one. The thing is, with this being Kepler's best season by far and it also being one of Harper's worst (to date), the difference between the two in WRC+ is only 8 points.

I could look at the low BABIPs of Renfroe/Kepler and the higher BABIP of Harper and say that Harper is due for negative regression while the other two are due for positive regression. Instead, I will try to have some faith in Harper. Perhaps the All-Star Break gives him a chance to catch up a bit. Don't get me wrong, Renfroe has big power, but 50+ homers seems extreme. Harper's got a 70 game clean slate ahead of him and I think he can do enough to reclaim himself and build on it next year(s).

#3) Paul Goldschmidt is better than Anthony Rizzo going forward - Anthony Rizzo is somewhat of the Khris Davis of first basemen, meaning that you tend to know what you're getting. While Davis is lagging in stats a bit at the moment, the point is the same. 30 home runs and 100 RBI are about what you expect from Rizzo.

I think with Kris Bryant's injury-shortened down year in 2018, it was important for Rizzo to have a hot streak early in the year - and he did, batting .355 in May with nine home runs and twenty-four RBI in 24 games. It was easy to get carried away in believing Rizzo might have a career year. And maybe he does, but he also batted .228 in March/April and .232 in June. Thus it's evened out for him on the whole. The Cubs, as well, have seemed to get most of their players back on track and it is less critical for Rizzo to try to carry the team by himself.

The same can't be said for Paul Goldschmidt. The Cardinals want to win and the offense needs him with Marcel Ozuna out (plus, Goldschmidt was expected to be the anchor of this lineup to begin with). I guess you could be pessimistic and compare his career to that of Albert Pujols in the sense that this is around the time Pujols began to decline, but I'd rather look on the bright side in this case.

The Cardinals need a few things to go right - maybe a trade for Will Smith, continued success from Carlos Martinez whether as a closer or a a regular reliever, some ERA correction for Andrew Miller, anything from Matt Carpenter, some improvement from Flaherty - and Goldschmidt would seem to either follow or be the catalyst for those scenarios to work in conjunction. Perhaps even Alex Reyes makes a few stellar starts. These are all highly possible and I've gotta believe Goldschmidt pulls the ace from his sleeve at some point.

#4) Justin Turner has a top 7 finish at 3rd base - Without thinking too much about it, this might not seem that high at his respective position. It is important to remember, though, that the six ahead of him would be Bregman, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rendon, Nolan Arenado, Matt Chapman, and Rafael Devers - all superstars or the budding elite.

I do think Turner can outperform Moustakas, Machado, Eduardo Escobar, Lemahieu, Josh Donaldson, and Eugenio Suarez (though Machado and the recently-surging Donaldson feel the most threatening here.) Turner might have been a late bloomer in his career, but he has remained a very polished hitter since 2014 - posting a WRC+ of 141 or better in four of those five seasons.

Justin Turner is still in the 88th percentile of expected slugging percentage, the 92nd percentile of xwOBA, and the 96th percentile in expected batting average - all with a very good exit velocity and hard hit percentage.

It's no secret the Dodgers are good. With Bellinger doing his thing, Verdugo performing well, and Seager and Pollock returning, there should be a lot of opportunities for Justin Turner's metrics to translate to highly valuable production.



That is all I have for you in this installment of The Catch. Thank you to those of you out there who take the time to read our articles. If there's something you'd like to see us try to cover in an article, it's worth a shot to reach out to us and we'll see what we can do. Have a great day.

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