Could This Be the Amed Rosario Breakout We've Been Waiting For?

(Photo Permission of and Credit to Freek Bouw of Phrake Photography)

Posted By: Steven Claxton

If you were ever one among the crowd of those who had bought into Amed Rosario as a rookie, you were likely left feeling unnerved. Maybe you even pursued the potential dividends of his suggested talent the following season - multiplying your anger. Whatever the case, I don't need to inform you Amed Rosario hasn't been impressive as a major leaguer.

I've personally been hesitant to buy into Rosario ever since he was a touted prospect, but I have always liked his build. That does not hold much weight, but he has a bit of a wiry frame that looks poised for athleticism.

I've heard a lot of banter regarding the Mets over the course of the past month or so; from the top, the Wilpons - to Callaway - to Brodie Van Wagenen. An overall disdain for what the Mets have done, most notably, this season.

Some may say they hadn't rostered a competitive team to begin 2019 in the first place, but I am of the belief they have under-performed with what was a team of which could have contended - if not contended, then at least play above .500 ball.

Doesn't matter, hasn't happened.

Amed Rosario hasn't been the lone reason for any of this, of course. He's not the one being paid $29,000,000 a year. He's not an established star as Ramos and Cano are, both of whom are veterans who are under-performing. He doesn't account for the injuries to Noah Syndergaard or, most recently, Zack Wheeler. He isn't a closer who has experienced a 250% increase in ERA from between this year and last.

There is more to the Mets' troubles than those examples above, but I think you understand.

Still, Rosario was a lauded young player and figured to provide a boost to the organization at the major league level. While he has been an above average major league player, he has lacked an offensive spark.

Maybe it's unfair given his age. After all, he entered the league as a twenty-one year old. I think it's easy to forget that key component. It's unusual for a player of such an age to instantly deliver on promise - despite things like an elite 65 future value on Fangraphs.com.

Now, in 2019, Amed Rosario is having his best season to date. It's not dramatic, yet it is significant. With over one-third of a season remaining, he's already hit more home runs than last year (which was his first and only full season) and is already 5 RBI away from 2018's total of 51.

He has his first .400+ slugging percentage, his first .300+ on-base percentage, and a WRC+ sitting at an even 100. The speed, in terms of stolen bases, hasn't been quite as prevalent as last season, but he has chipped in 11 so far - putting him at his first double-double (11 home runs, 11 stolen bases). Both of those totals figure to expand to over 15 and perhaps closer to 20. Not bad.

It looks like he may have been a tad more selective at the plate this season, as well, along with a significant improvement in hard-hit rate.

That being said, these are all statistics and metrics that speak of the sum of his 2019 season and that's not exactly what is important. Clapping over mostly minimal improvements from a major league ballplayer over the course of three years is somewhat excessive.

We need to discuss what Amed Rosario has done as of late as he's been excellent.

Rosario has had some shorter streaks this year, which may indicate that he has been great in spurts - and inconsistent altogether. For instance, he had a stretch in which he had amassed 14 hits in 41 at-bats (.341). Another in which he posted 9 hits in 29 at-bats (.310). It kind of seems like he has been flirting with being good...or even great, offensively.

And now, finally, he has his first extended "hot streak" as he has 36 hits in his last 100 at-bats - obviously good for a .360 batting average. This began on June 17th and has now lasted for almost exactly a month, and continued even after the down-time of the all-star break. Furthermore, if not for a three game stretch in late June in which he went hitless in twelve at-bats - which one could argue was a brief adjustment period - Rosario's batting average of this extended hot streak would be .409.

Regardless, his 100 at-bat stretch of play includes 3 home runs, 21 runs, 10 RBI, 5 stolen bases, 8 doubles, 6 walks, and 19 strikeouts.

In a 550 at-bat season, this would extrapolate to 16-17 home runs, 40+ doubles, 25+ stolen bases, 115 runs, 55 RBI, 33 walks, and only 95 strikeouts. While the other numbers are good, the decrease in strikeouts are certainly nice. When a player can strikeout less than 100 times in a season, it is often in itself a sign of success - but not always.

A .360 batting average seems hard to maintain - not only during Rosario's streak, but in future seasons...however, at the tender age of 23 years old, we have to wonder if this can continue for a guy who was one of the top prospects in all of baseball.

Even if the batting average falls to .315 as he finds his form and figures out how to be consistent, Rosario would appear to be a newly developed asset for the Mets and for fantasy teams. He has enough size and certainly enough speed to either increase his home runs marginally or become a 30-40 stolen base-stealing shortstop, if not both.

Sure, maybe he regresses back to his norms, but maybe this is a new Amed Rosario. And maybe, just maybe, you should go and add him to your fantasy team and find out.

That is all I have for you in this installment of The Catch. Thank you to those of you out there who take the time to read our articles. If there's something you'd like to see us try to cover in an article, it's worth a shot to reach out to us and we'll see what we can do. Have a great day.

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