Recapping The Catch's First Few Months & Brief Home Run Derby Predictions

(Photo Permission of and Credit to Freek Bouw of Phrake Photography)

Posted By: Steven Claxton

A few months ago, I created The Catch on a whim. I obviously enjoy baseball, but I think I still surprised even myself by making the plunge to go through with committing myself to something such as this. It has become a bit like having my own child...not that I would truly know what that's like given that I have no children.

Initially, I wanted to write two articles a week, but sometimes I've only been able to produce one. From physical woes, to (hopefully temporary) eyesight troubles, and starting a new job, it has been a learning process in terms of balancing it all. While I don't think there are a ton of you out there who have followed closely from the beginning, I'd still like to apologize if I at all caused you to give your hopes up.

I've had people laugh at my articles, tear them down, and those who like them, and some have commented with their thoughts, as well. Any feedback for me has been a good thing. I tend to know if or when I haven't met expectations because I set the bar high for myself in general- and The Catch is no different.

When I started this thing, my initial thought was to base it off of a subscription process and I was quickly told by potential readers that there'd be no interest in paying. What the future holds in that regard depends on if I improve as a writer and if I wish to to dedicate myself fully, but it was also a positive because it allowed me to start more slowly and appropriately get my feet wet.

Ultimately, I don't claim to know everything, but I tend to only write things I believe in - and when it's something I don't - I am up front about that.

The Truth

...In 2015, I took a chance at working for a major internet provider (of whom I won't name) as what was going to be a call center representative. Humorously, I was and still am not technologically-minded. I was a beefy baseball head who was a visual learner - and didn't really care about technology. But I gave it a try, figuring what would come would be.

For six weeks, they trained a group of maybe thirty of us in a highly condensed course in a classroom setting. There were coursework supplies like notebooks, textbooks, and the like. They probably could have stood to have made the course another two weeks longer, but that's a bit irrelevant now.

All those annoying, intrusive phone calls you receive when you least want them to, we learned to use the key words used within those calls. (I was actually going to be technical support, though, rather than that of some sort of sales or marketing position.)

For the final two weeks of the eight week course, we all took calls on the floor. I'm almost positive some of the calls were our trainers pretending to be angry customers just to see how we would handle the situation and if we were built for the position.

Long story short, they lied to us and let go of half of us after the eight weeks. I felt badly for some because they were offered free internet and TV as employees and went through with setting it all up - and I'd assume had to pay for all of that after no longer being employees of the company.

I didn't have the most respect for our particular supervisor or the way calls were handled because we couldn't be ourselves and be genuine in assisting customers, but I remember one thing that is relevant here. In our calls, we would "recap" all that we did for the customer in each call. It was basically to state the manner in which we helped and it served as somewhat of a reminder for what a customer could do in a future event.

Example: A customer calls in stating that her internet doesn't work and that she was also having issues with her password on the mobile app. After helping her fix her issues, we would recap by saying something to the effect of, "Well, Miss Johnson, just a quick recap on what we accomplished today. You called in regarding your internet not working and we reset your router and modem and you now have your internet back up and running. We, as well, reset your password for you and you are also able to use the app again accordingly. Is there anything else I can assist you with today?"

Thus, that's what this article is.

Some might not believe in The Catch and my analysis or thought process. And again, I know I'm not always correct, but I thought with the 1st half of the major league baseball season in the books, it'd be a good time to look back and see where we went right...and maybe a little of where we went wrong. It should help demonstrate that we aren't here solely putting out click-bait and that our advice has its accuracies.

Reflection

#1) Pre-Season Awards Predictions:

Max Scherzer for NL Cy Young = Currently leading the majors in WAR among pitchers and with deGrom coming back to Earth, I'd say he's the front runner for the award. Ryu may have the better ERA, but that 2.1 difference in WAR between the two is steep and I believe the voters will be cognizant of that.
Trevor Bauer for AL Cy Young = Sure, there's still time for a serious rebound, but it's not looking good for Bauer. He hasn't been the same guy he was last year. I should have gone with the safer bet of either Gerrit Cole or Chris Sale, although it's wide open with Morton, Giolito, and a few more. I was a Bauer fanboy and the more I've gotten to know him via Twitter and such, I've jumped ship from that.
Alex Bregman for AL MVP = Considering he has the 2nd best WAR in the AL behind only Mike Trout, I consider this a successful pick. I said when I made the pick that Trout is the boring pick and i expected Betts to regress. Bregman is on pace for 40 home runs or so with a lowly BABIP of .247, so there should be, I'd guess, at least a good .04 percent of correction there in batting average. The home runs could prevent him from reaching or exceeding the league average BABIP as they are not factored into BABIP, but he has performed well on a team that has seen some key injuries to offense. It's more than possible he closes that gap a bit between he and Trout as the season continues and the team's health returns to normal.
Paul Goldschmidt for NL MVP = I don't need to tell you that this more than likely won't happen. Cody Bellinger has performed like a modern-day Barry Bonds, while Yelich, Bryant, Rendon, and more have also been huge on the positional player front. He has homered in consecutive games as I write this and did have a huge finish last year, therefore a player of his caliber could easily go on a big run, however it would take a free-fall from both Bellinger and Yelich in order for him to nab the award. No one saw Bellinger performing at this level so I don't feel too badly, but perhaps Yelich was the safer pick.
Gary Sanchez for AL Comeback Player of the Year = With 26 bombs at the all-star break, good for 10th in the majors, and in roughly 20 games less than most, I'd say Sanchez is in an excellent spot for this award..
Kris Bryant for NL Comeback Player of the Year = Kris Bryant has done Kris Bryant things and is now eighth in the majors in WAR. The counting stats don't always equate to gaudy numbers, but anyone who looks closely knows Bryant is a star and, if eligible, looks to be a great candidate for CPOTY.
Eloy Jimenez for AL Rookie of the Year = I'm going green on this one because, to date, Eloy has been better than Vlad. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could go ballistic at any point, but Eloy has rebounded from his ice cold start. Yordan Alvarez is also a threat, but I'm not so sure the team keeps him up once Correa is healthy - and even if they do, there is a 43 game difference between the two as far as number of at-bats goes.
Fernando Tatis Jr. for NL Rookie of the Year = Going green on this one, too. It is a two-horsed race between Tatis Jr. and Pete Alonso - a battle of which could come down to late in the season. Granted I wrote the article after it was announced he would begin the season on the opening day roster, but a lot could have gone wrong for the young star with his age.

#2) After the first week of ball, I wrote a review of it and I stand by the vast majority of what I wrote, but I am here to tell you I was wrong about a few things...

For starters, I suggested that the Angels could potentially fall into the bottom 5 (this year only). While there's risk to be bottom 10, there are 5 teams that are pretty locked in to being the 5 worst. La Stella, Fletcher, Ohtani, and Canning have both held their own and provided a substantial boost to the team in spite of La Stella going down with injury recently and the team suffering the tragic loss of Tyler Skaggs (Rest In Peace).

Yandy Diaz - While I've already mentioned this in a prior article, I was wrong about Diaz and, specifically, his power. He seems like a solid hitter who can hit a ceiling of 25 home runs. For someone who hit 7 home runs in his first 26 games, however, I was right not to overrate his hot start.

Maikel Franco - I guess there was a shred of truth to my initial thoughts. I clearly overrated the addition of Bryce Harper, at least regarding Franco, but he is on pace for a career-best walk rate - as well as K-rate. Franco appears to be who he is. (He is still young, though, therefore improvement is possible despite several years of mediocrity.)

#3) Then, there was the review following the first month of play.

Paul DeJong - After his great first month, I said I was ready to admit he was a good player. He has still been good on the whole, but he hasn't maintained his early season gains. I'd say my analysis was neutral here.

Trevor Bauer - I mentioned the reasons to be scared of Trevor Bauer as early as April 29th and he's continued to have his ups and downs.

#4) I wrote an article discussing players whom I thought could gain power as the season went on. Specifically, I named Corey Seager and Byron Buxton as my main two players and threw in Jeff McNeil as an honorable mention. 

-Byron Buxton now has a slugging percentage over .500 on the year.

-Corey Seager then went on to hit 11 doubles and 6 home runs in about one month of play prior to hitting the injured list.

Heck, even Jeff McNeil has a slugging percentage over .500 now.

#5) I listed a few of my favorite buy-lows and went 50-50.

The first guy I was sold on buying-low on was Zack Wheeler. Unfortunately, that positive regression just hasn't hit yet. I'd personally still buy low, but his 4.69 ERA tells the story (while his 2.6 WAR, 3.65 FIP, and 3.81 xFIP all stare back at you with a sarcastic smile).

As for Justin Smoak, we hit the nail on the head...

From the article published on May 22nd: "you have to figure Justin Smoak has a hot streak coming and we could be seeing a barrage of homers soon."

Smoak went on to hit six home runs in his next eight games.

#6) In a June 4th article, I considered Ramon Laureano and Carson Kelly forgotten or overlooked and expressed faith in Kelly and continued faith in Laureano. Both have been very good since.

#7) Finally, if you join our Facebook group, you'll occasionally get a cool statistic. For instance, The Catch was the first to point out that Josh Bell was on pace to finish 3rd all-time in extra-base hits - before The Athletic and wherever else it was posted.

Ultimately, I don't have the time right now to be as active as the major websites and networks, but I think we've done a respectable job over here at The Catch thus far. 

Home Run Derby Predictions

Last but not least, the Home Run Derby is in just a little over an hour at the time of writing this. Seems like a perfect time to drop our predictions.(This is more of a fun series of predictions rather than something I adamantly stand by.)

Chapman over Vlad Jr. - In theory, balls being lobbed over the heart of the plate would favor Vlad Jr. based on his pedigree and minor league destruction. "In theory", also, Matt Chapman is a great player. I could definitely see Guerrero's age showing here, or at least being beaten by Chapman. Cody Bellinger looks like a superstar in 2019, but even he didn't win the derby in his rookie year.

Bregman over Joc Pederson - Bregman feels very Chapman-y here. Joc seems like a player who could surprise, ala Schwarber in 2018's derby, but Bregman is an elite hitter and was excellent in last year's derby. Not sure if it means much, but he also currently sits 17th in fly-ball percentage for the season.

Alonso over Santana - Santana may be performing in front of his home crowd, but let's not act like Santana wasn't on the Phillies the year before. What's really home in his mind? I certainly could see him being a dark horse, but he's never been a true home run hitter - and a true home run hitter is exactly what Pete Alonso is.

Bell over Acuna Jr. - As big as Alonso is, Josh Bell has an inch and 10 pounds on him and has put up some stunning statistics thus far. Acuna has all the talent to win this round and the derby altogether, but I'm feeling Bell.

2nd round - Bregman over Chapman
                    Bell over Alonso

Championship - Josh Bell wins it

That is all I have for you in this installment of The Catch. Thank you to those of you out there who take the time to read our articles. If there's something you'd like to see us try to cover in an article, it's worth a shot to reach out to us and we'll see what we can do. Have a great day.

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